Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Justin Wrobleski · 74°F

9.8% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

41.7%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

58.3%

Fair line (home)

-140

Proj. total

9.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.58)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.14)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.73

Over

46.9%

Under

53.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	41.7%	+207	+140
Los Angeles Dodgers	58.3%	-230	-140

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.8	.736	.182	.018	.128	.418	.827	.247	.321	.386	.707
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.603	.181	.008	.185	.477	1.130	.240	.340	.425	.765
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.709	.174	.011	.254	.339	.932	.275	.337	.505	.841
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.618	.167	.009	.241	.361	.971	.255	.321	.479	.799
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.436	.120	.002	.285	.479	1.183	.221	.314	.477	.792
Josh Naylor	4.2	.665	.165	.004	.185	.365	.595	.265	.334	.455	.789
Rob Refsnyder	4.1	.528	.136	.008	.152	.400	1.107	.224	.308	.389	.698
Weston Wilson	4.0	.478	.116	.009	.137	.385	1.155	.205	.287	.356	.643
Colt Emerson	3.9	.487	.135	.016	.109	.333	1.064	.212	.289	.353	.642

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.606	.160	.044	.316	.631	1.130	.282	.385	.582	.966
Andy Pages	4.5	.691	.207	.010	.209	.282	.949	.265	.321	.468	.789
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.722	.208	.016	.175	.457	.809	.285	.368	.480	.848
Max Muncy	4.3	.495	.140	.014	.230	.581	1.063	.238	.349	.471	.820
Mookie Betts	4.2	.662	.196	.017	.178	.410	.516	.277	.352	.479	.830
Tommy Edman	4.1	.662	.154	.027	.117	.272	.816	.252	.310	.400	.710
Kyle Tucker	4.0	.565	.159	.019	.177	.505	.705	.264	.361	.473	.834
Teoscar Hernández	3.9	.578	.155	.006	.180	.270	1.049	.255	.313	.451	.764
Dalton Rushing	3.8	.481	.132	.005	.157	.348	1.044	.230	.311	.412	.723

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections