Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 80°F

0.9% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates win

31.7%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

68.3%

Fair line (home)

-215

Proj. total

9.4

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.87)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.54)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.4

Over

53.2%

Under

39.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	31.7%	+200	+215
Los Angeles Dodgers	68.3%	-222	-215

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	4.0	5.1	2.7	3.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.9	6.3	5.6	1.7	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Bubba Chandler4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto4+ 89%6+ 61%8+ 29%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.7	.713	.210	.012	.138	.511	.915	.259	.348	.416	.764
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.569	.163	.008	.213	.351	1.397	.226	.290	.420	.710
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.646	.161	.016	.140	.403	1.252	.239	.317	.391	.707
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.763	.199	.021	.081	.252	.933	.261	.311	.379	.691
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.500	.142	.014	.186	.422	1.499	.220	.303	.410	.713
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.571	.142	.014	.131	.346	1.265	.225	.295	.373	.668
Jake Mangum	4.1	.793	.157	.020	.039	.179	.837	.263	.303	.344	.647
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.543	.163	.009	.117	.248	.855	.227	.283	.373	.656
Jared Triolo	3.8	.577	.136	.008	.067	.349	.965	.229	.305	.332	.637

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.613	.181	.042	.324	.784	1.048	.296	.419	.612	1.031
Freddie Freeman	4.6	.768	.226	.015	.175	.574	.774	.296	.392	.492	.884
Andy Pages	4.5	.693	.192	.015	.195	.382	.894	.269	.340	.466	.807
Max Muncy	4.4	.507	.138	.013	.232	.717	1.028	.245	.379	.483	.861
Mookie Betts	4.3	.678	.189	.017	.175	.513	.501	.281	.372	.480	.853
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.582	.156	.022	.173	.654	.673	.266	.385	.470	.855
Tommy Edman	4.1	.648	.143	.030	.117	.317	.775	.253	.322	.401	.723
Teoscar Hernández	4.0	.594	.155	.008	.187	.334	1.018	.262	.331	.466	.797
Hunter Feduccia	3.9	.544	.129	.017	.093	.443	.978	.231	.324	.362	.686

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections