Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Jared Jones vs Tarik Skubal · 79°F

4.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

33.8%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

66.3%

Fair line (home)

-196

Proj. total

8.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.37)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.75)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.12

Over

50.2%

Under

49.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	33.8%	+233	+196
Los Angeles Dodgers	66.3%	-260	-196

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.4	4.5	4.3	1.9	2.2
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.7	7.6	4.7	1.2	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Jared Jones4+ 68%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Tarik Skubal4+ 96%6+ 80%8+ 49%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.6	.740	.193	.021	.094	.239	1.142	.245	.294	.366	.660
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.480	.143	.008	.232	.368	1.643	.213	.284	.423	.708
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.577	.149	.011	.144	.334	1.399	.222	.292	.374	.665
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.460	.133	.013	.198	.358	1.664	.207	.279	.401	.681
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.525	.126	.011	.142	.299	1.433	.210	.272	.359	.631
Jake Mangum	4.1	.739	.148	.011	.043	.150	.966	.245	.284	.322	.606
Nick Yorke	3.9	.602	.139	.014	.084	.220	1.121	.228	.278	.342	.620
Jared Triolo	3.8	.519	.124	.008	.071	.319	1.107	.209	.283	.312	.595
Henry Davis	3.7	.417	.106	.004	.130	.255	1.148	.195	.262	.344	.607

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.6	.566	.157	.037	.317	.655	1.183	.276	.385	.580	.965
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.734	.211	.013	.159	.495	.880	.284	.371	.465	.836
Mookie Betts	4.4	.678	.189	.015	.183	.491	.583	.276	.362	.476	.838
Max Muncy	4.3	.460	.133	.012	.219	.629	1.143	.230	.353	.456	.809
Tommy Edman	4.2	.642	.145	.026	.118	.276	.903	.243	.304	.386	.691
Kyle Tucker	4.1	.556	.141	.023	.176	.556	.733	.258	.365	.463	.828
Teoscar Hernández	4.0	.567	.158	.005	.176	.295	1.122	.250	.313	.442	.756
Alek Thomas	3.8	.548	.159	.013	.115	.224	.952	.233	.285	.381	.666
Ben Rortvedt	3.7	.476	.121	.005	.084	.324	1.009	.205	.284	.320	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections