Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Lake Bachar vs Blake Snell · 82°F

6.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

35.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

65.0%

Fair line (home)

-186

Proj. total

8.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.81)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.03)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.84

Over

48.5%

Under

51.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	35.0%	+248	+186
Los Angeles Dodgers	65.0%	-278	-186

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.1	2.0	2.2	1.1	1.1
Blake Snell LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	4.9	6.4	4.0	2.2	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Lake Bachar4+ 12%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Blake Snell4+ 90%6+ 63%8+ 30%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.7	.768	.202	.020	.092	.362	1.097	.251	.316	.372	.688
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.6	.476	.151	.010	.218	.545	1.631	.212	.311	.416	.727
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.566	.156	.010	.136	.497	1.381	.220	.316	.368	.685
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.489	.142	.007	.207	.439	1.452	.215	.298	.413	.711
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.528	.133	.011	.135	.439	1.408	.211	.296	.357	.654
Nick Yorke	4.2	.625	.143	.014	.090	.332	1.132	.228	.294	.344	.638
Spencer Horwitz	4.1	.553	.160	.007	.109	.565	.865	.239	.352	.383	.735
Jared Triolo	4.0	.532	.127	.007	.065	.466	1.092	.211	.310	.308	.617
Billy Cook	3.9	.473	.120	.019	.105	.283	1.269	.203	.268	.337	.604

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.580	.169	.035	.308	.743	1.118	.281	.401	.580	.981
Freddie Freeman	4.6	.747	.219	.012	.168	.554	.809	.291	.387	.480	.867
Mookie Betts	4.5	.676	.201	.017	.176	.517	.550	.274	.364	.470	.834
Max Muncy	4.3	.480	.133	.011	.212	.681	1.077	.232	.362	.451	.813
Tommy Edman	4.3	.673	.149	.032	.123	.312	.856	.253	.320	.403	.723
Kyle Tucker	4.1	.568	.151	.023	.167	.614	.723	.260	.375	.459	.834
Teoscar Hernández	4.0	.589	.153	.006	.179	.327	1.097	.253	.321	.444	.765
Alek Thomas	3.9	.577	.167	.015	.116	.250	.914	.241	.297	.392	.689
Hunter Feduccia	3.8	.505	.130	.017	.085	.428	1.013	.221	.314	.346	.660

Data notes: home starter Blake Snell: only 25 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Blake Snell: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections