St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Eric Lauer · 70°F

3.4% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

39.7%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

60.3%

Fair line (home)

-152

Proj. total

9.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.58)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.30)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.89

Over

48.4%

Under

40.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	39.7%	+170	+152
Los Angeles Dodgers	60.3%	-186	-152

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.9	3.2	5.9	1.7	2.9
Eric Lauer LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	4.9	3.6	5.1	1.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Michael McGreevy4+ 40%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Eric Lauer4+ 50%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.8	.702	.193	.005	.133	.499	.594	.246	.336	.390	.726
Iván Herrera	4.7	.697	.168	.009	.192	.490	.823	.263	.358	.451	.809
Jordan Walker	4.5	.663	.192	.007	.235	.355	1.092	.264	.328	.484	.812
Alec Burleson	4.4	.695	.178	.009	.245	.363	.655	.279	.344	.510	.853
Joshua Báez	4.3	.512	.153	.019	.263	.271	1.268	.236	.293	.481	.774
Leo Bernal	4.2	.592	.143	.009	.139	.286	.936	.226	.284	.374	.658
Ramón Urías	4.1	.592	.150	.007	.150	.289	.924	.239	.302	.402	.704
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.581	.151	.013	.127	.250	1.048	.235	.289	.385	.674
Nathan Church	3.9	.612	.133	.018	.123	.234	.665	.245	.298	.394	.692

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.709	.204	.047	.314	.568	.903	.310	.398	.612	1.011
Freddie Freeman	4.6	.855	.248	.015	.162	.430	.625	.311	.382	.496	.878
Mookie Betts	4.5	.772	.224	.018	.167	.390	.400	.290	.356	.477	.833
Max Muncy	4.4	.579	.159	.015	.220	.535	.879	.257	.355	.480	.835
Will Smith	4.3	.715	.181	.011	.159	.428	.639	.281	.363	.461	.824
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.672	.175	.022	.177	.482	.543	.286	.373	.492	.865
Tommy Edman	4.1	.723	.162	.032	.112	.225	.636	.272	.322	.421	.743
Enrique Hernández	3.9	.640	.171	.013	.112	.241	.758	.254	.302	.398	.700
Alex Freeland	3.8	.586	.147	.021	.102	.335	.890	.247	.318	.390	.708

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections