St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Quinn Mathews vs Tarik Skubal · 71°F

2.7% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

31.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

68.8%

Fair line (home)

-221

Proj. total

8.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.25)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.83)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.08

Over

50.0%

Under

50.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	31.2%	+243	+221
Los Angeles Dodgers	68.8%	-273	-221

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	3.8	5.0	2.8	2.5
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.8	7.0	4.6	1.1	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Quinn Mathews4+ 54%6+ 18%8+ 4%

Tarik Skubal4+ 93%6+ 72%8+ 40%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.5	.634	.172	.006	.097	.385	.824	.223	.300	.340	.640
Iván Herrera	4.4	.631	.144	.009	.151	.376	1.119	.238	.321	.394	.715
Jordan Walker	4.3	.573	.163	.007	.181	.270	1.379	.230	.284	.409	.693
Joshua Báez	4.2	.448	.133	.016	.203	.210	1.546	.202	.251	.397	.649
Leo Bernal	4.1	.536	.129	.008	.104	.227	1.212	.201	.251	.320	.571
Ramón Urías	4.0	.541	.137	.007	.118	.241	1.173	.216	.272	.352	.625
Thomas Saggese	3.9	.527	.131	.013	.092	.191	1.280	.208	.253	.326	.580
Nathan Church	3.8	.561	.121	.015	.093	.191	.843	.224	.272	.345	.617
Pedro Pagés	3.6	.449	.110	.005	.110	.185	1.216	.197	.245	.328	.573

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.771	.168	.026	.116	.359	.883	.254	.323	.387	.710
Mookie Betts	4.6	.725	.206	.015	.158	.606	.502	.280	.380	.459	.839
Teoscar Hernández	4.5	.664	.184	.007	.183	.412	1.119	.258	.334	.444	.778
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.732	.213	.013	.142	.582	.701	.295	.398	.474	.872
Will Smith	4.3	.617	.162	.009	.139	.633	.747	.260	.381	.427	.808
Miguel Rojas	4.2	.758	.200	.004	.071	.359	.496	.275	.345	.388	.733
Kyle Tucker	4.0	.571	.156	.024	.147	.663	.617	.267	.392	.459	.852
Alex Call	3.9	.566	.147	.012	.079	.574	.688	.243	.365	.367	.732
Enrique Hernández	3.8	.567	.146	.011	.103	.328	.830	.238	.308	.375	.683

Data notes: away starter Quinn Mathews: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Quinn Mathews: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections