St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Brycen Mautz vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 71°F

2.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

32.3%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

67.7%

Fair line (home)

-210

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.79)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.29)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.08

Over

51.4%

Under

40.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	32.3%	+226	+210
Los Angeles Dodgers	67.7%	-252	-210

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brycen Mautz LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	3.2	2.3	3.6	1.7	1.9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.9	5.8	5.5	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Brycen Mautz4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto4+ 84%6+ 53%8+ 22%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.7	.789	.161	.028	.068	.452	1.026	.248	.325	.348	.673
Iván Herrera	4.6	.697	.170	.009	.137	.440	.969	.252	.341	.401	.742
Alec Burleson	4.5	.737	.186	.011	.179	.328	.799	.271	.329	.452	.781
Jordan Walker	4.4	.619	.181	.008	.168	.313	1.234	.243	.303	.417	.720
Leo Bernal	4.3	.610	.139	.013	.105	.288	1.072	.220	.277	.342	.619
Nolan Gorman	4.2	.419	.109	.006	.182	.404	1.543	.192	.274	.371	.644
José Fermín	4.0	.578	.164	.005	.082	.408	.616	.231	.318	.348	.666
Nathan Church	3.9	.634	.135	.017	.099	.223	.769	.241	.291	.368	.659
Thomas Saggese	3.8	.543	.139	.012	.093	.229	1.123	.222	.274	.346	.621

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.7	.623	.188	.042	.296	.751	.972	.293	.412	.588	1
Tommy Edman	4.6	.777	.177	.027	.122	.307	.785	.262	.325	.404	.729
Mookie Betts	4.5	.740	.207	.018	.172	.514	.443	.289	.375	.482	.857
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.755	.221	.014	.151	.516	.648	.300	.392	.485	.877
Miguel Rojas	4.3	.798	.213	.004	.087	.313	.462	.281	.340	.404	.744
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.603	.160	.025	.165	.608	.598	.269	.381	.469	.850
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.630	.174	.007	.177	.331	.936	.267	.335	.462	.797
Max Muncy	4.0	.465	.129	.013	.191	.608	.864	.242	.369	.463	.832
Hunter Feduccia	3.8	.556	.145	.017	.089	.415	.891	.237	.323	.367	.691

Data notes: away starter Brycen Mautz: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Brycen Mautz: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections