Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Jackson Kent vs Blake Snell · 72°F

5.0% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

34.6%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

65.4%

Fair line (home)

-189

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.63)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.93)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.55

Over

46.1%

Under

46.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	34.6%	+230	+189
Los Angeles Dodgers	65.4%	-257	-189

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.8	3.5	5.2	2.2	2.6
Blake Snell LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	6.7	3.9	2.2	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Kent4+ 47%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Blake Snell4+ 92%6+ 68%8+ 34%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.483	.164	.009	.217	.742	1.618	.223	.350	.436	.787
Andrés Chaparro	4.6	.486	.167	.004	.202	.467	1.327	.212	.300	.404	.704
Dylan Crews	4.5	.532	.142	.017	.142	.390	1.310	.208	.287	.358	.645
CJ Abrams	4.3	.528	.151	.018	.167	.369	1.179	.221	.299	.398	.697
Brady House	4.2	.555	.140	.012	.143	.267	1.366	.216	.270	.366	.636
Yohandy Morales	4.1	.535	.142	.008	.137	.341	1.345	.219	.289	.370	.659
Harry Ford	4.0	.448	.117	.005	.094	.510	1.251	.191	.303	.309	.612
Jacob Young	3.9	.585	.128	.013	.067	.344	.899	.225	.303	.326	.630
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.532	.069	.018	.030	.384	1.042	.192	.278	.250	.528

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.777	.187	.023	.126	.313	.823	.260	.322	.403	.724
Mookie Betts	4.5	.739	.216	.014	.189	.498	.456	.289	.371	.491	.862
Teoscar Hernández	4.4	.698	.189	.012	.205	.349	1.071	.273	.336	.477	.813
Will Smith	4.3	.648	.177	.010	.168	.539	.721	.269	.370	.457	.827
Max Muncy	4.2	.495	.137	.011	.229	.649	.927	.247	.371	.487	.858
Miguel Rojas	4.1	.773	.211	.005	.087	.281	.458	.283	.338	.410	.747
Alex Call	4.0	.608	.157	.011	.091	.513	.672	.252	.358	.384	.742
Kyle Tucker	3.9	.563	.147	.018	.164	.542	.574	.268	.374	.471	.845
Enrique Hernández	3.8	.576	.160	.012	.119	.279	.793	.249	.307	.403	.711

Data notes: home starter Blake Snell: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Blake Snell: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Jackson Kent: only 21 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Kent: only 67 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections