Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow · 77°F

3.5% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

37.9%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

62.1%

Fair line (home)

-164

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.76)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.41

Over

52.7%

Under

35.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	37.9%	+185	+164
Los Angeles Dodgers	62.1%	-204	-164

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cade Cavalli RHP · Washington Nationals	5.0	5.1	4.9	2.0	2.3
Tyler Glasnow RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	6.0	4.2	1.7	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Cade Cavalli4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Tyler Glasnow4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.493	.166	.009	.233	.678	1.596	.228	.344	.452	.796
Daylen Lile	4.5	.640	.164	.050	.139	.318	1.080	.237	.297	.399	.696
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.482	.155	.006	.196	.364	1.288	.208	.279	.395	.674
CJ Abrams	4.3	.540	.155	.023	.175	.339	1.163	.228	.299	.413	.712
Brady House	4.2	.582	.143	.012	.147	.235	1.359	.223	.271	.377	.648
Jorbit Vivas	4.1	.571	.136	.011	.064	.460	.778	.217	.315	.314	.628
José Tena	4.0	.548	.141	.019	.094	.328	1.331	.219	.288	.345	.632
Keibert Ruiz	3.9	.579	.150	.003	.120	.218	.616	.234	.283	.376	.659
Dylan Crews	3.8	.458	.119	.013	.120	.285	1.116	.206	.275	.352	.626

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.6	.767	.175	.032	.123	.295	.929	.259	.323	.403	.725
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.779	.223	.013	.150	.479	.829	.293	.379	.469	.848
Mookie Betts	4.4	.708	.206	.013	.164	.449	.542	.278	.358	.462	.820
Max Muncy	4.3	.484	.139	.009	.210	.600	1.092	.232	.350	.448	.798
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.596	.164	.023	.167	.554	.709	.263	.367	.461	.828
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.630	.168	.012	.182	.296	1.115	.264	.325	.460	.785
Dalton Rushing	4.0	.523	.144	.005	.175	.362	1.151	.238	.321	.429	.749
Alex Freeland	3.9	.535	.136	.013	.099	.380	1.076	.227	.312	.361	.672
Hunter Feduccia	3.8	.530	.139	.013	.084	.385	1.002	.229	.314	.354	.668

Data notes: home starter Tyler Glasnow: only 72 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections