Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Justin Wrobleski · 73°F

2.3% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

38.1%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

61.9%

Fair line (home)

-162

Proj. total

9.18

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.13)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.06)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.18

Over

52.4%

Under

40.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	38.1%	+173	+162
Los Angeles Dodgers	61.9%	-190	-162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.0	2.8	4.4	2.0	2.1
Justin Wrobleski LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.5	5.2	5.3	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Alvarez4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Justin Wrobleski4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.573	.194	.008	.268	.607	1.391	.256	.356	.505	.861
Dylan Crews	4.6	.618	.164	.018	.171	.312	1.107	.230	.292	.398	.690
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.548	.174	.003	.228	.356	1.075	.233	.302	.444	.746
CJ Abrams	4.4	.592	.171	.024	.196	.310	.961	.246	.313	.448	.761
Brady House	4.3	.637	.156	.012	.163	.211	1.154	.240	.283	.406	.689
Daylen Lile	4.2	.629	.164	.050	.143	.265	.797	.256	.310	.435	.746
Harry Ford	4.1	.505	.131	.005	.117	.435	1.090	.212	.306	.350	.656
Jacob Young	3.9	.635	.135	.016	.075	.263	.750	.237	.298	.345	.643
Nasim Nuñez	3.8	.623	.080	.016	.040	.314	.871	.218	.287	.284	.571

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.795	.182	.025	.123	.315	.829	.260	.324	.400	.724
Mookie Betts	4.6	.740	.216	.014	.175	.543	.460	.284	.373	.474	.848
Will Smith	4.5	.691	.185	.011	.162	.589	.733	.273	.378	.453	.831
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.760	.219	.014	.149	.538	.676	.301	.395	.484	.879
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.675	.182	.011	.184	.359	1.016	.271	.338	.465	.804
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.615	.162	.020	.155	.612	.583	.269	.381	.458	.839
Miguel Rojas	4.1	.761	.203	.004	.077	.295	.452	.279	.338	.397	.735
Max Muncy	4.0	.472	.128	.009	.186	.628	.890	.242	.372	.457	.829
Enrique Hernández	3.9	.576	.163	.011	.111	.305	.817	.244	.308	.391	.699

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections