Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Emmet Sheehan · 79°F

2.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

40.7%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

59.3%

Fair line (home)

-146

Proj. total

9.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.31)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.89)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.2

Over

51.9%

Under

48.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	40.7%	+155	+146
Los Angeles Dodgers	59.3%	-169	-146

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	6.3	4.8	2.3	2.5
Emmet Sheehan RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	4.9	6.1	4.2	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Chase Burns4+ 89%6+ 61%8+ 28%

Emmet Sheehan4+ 88%6+ 59%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.7	.612	.145	.025	.266	.276	1.199	.240	.291	.468	.759
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.582	.158	.038	.212	.459	1.447	.243	.325	.457	.782
Sal Stewart	4.5	.558	.165	.003	.265	.407	1.132	.247	.322	.487	.809
JJ Bleday	4.4	.448	.138	.013	.233	.547	1.180	.220	.322	.447	.769
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.493	.143	.003	.170	.432	1.399	.213	.301	.387	.687
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.382	.115	.003	.266	.385	1.519	.207	.294	.454	.748
Matt McLain	4.1	.439	.128	.003	.157	.406	1.326	.202	.292	.371	.663
Carlos Jorge	3.9	.567	.117	.022	.091	.237	1.137	.218	.273	.336	.609
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.530	.118	.015	.104	.275	.937	.219	.281	.350	.631

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.6	.556	.159	.034	.348	.664	1.281	.278	.386	.601	.988
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.713	.203	.011	.199	.505	.953	.283	.370	.490	.860
Tommy Edman	4.4	.649	.147	.027	.147	.309	1.033	.240	.303	.399	.702
Max Muncy	4.3	.454	.124	.009	.264	.619	1.223	.233	.349	.488	.837
Teoscar Hernández	4.2	.576	.155	.012	.219	.315	1.298	.249	.311	.466	.777
Kyle Tucker	4.1	.541	.140	.019	.205	.559	.802	.258	.363	.484	.847
Hunter Feduccia	4.0	.516	.132	.013	.114	.415	1.187	.218	.303	.359	.663
Alex Call	3.9	.531	.136	.008	.112	.463	.885	.234	.336	.379	.715
Alex Freeland	3.8	.464	.120	.014	.119	.381	1.179	.215	.300	.366	.665

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections