Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Nick Lodolo vs Tarik Skubal · 87°F

5.6% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

33.1%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

66.9%

Fair line (home)

-202

Proj. total

9.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.86)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.35)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.21

Over

52.1%

Under

39.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	33.1%	+256	+202
Los Angeles Dodgers	66.9%	-289	-202

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.9	4.2	5.5	1.8	2.9
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.8	7.9	4.7	1.3	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Nick Lodolo4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Tarik Skubal4+ 97%6+ 83%8+ 54%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.6	.656	.131	.005	.141	.298	1.473	.221	.279	.355	.634
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.570	.161	.027	.200	.325	1.532	.234	.295	.432	.727
Sal Stewart	4.4	.567	.153	.002	.243	.285	1.242	.239	.295	.459	.753
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.502	.145	.004	.175	.342	1.481	.213	.283	.388	.671
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.382	.121	.001	.256	.304	1.622	.201	.271	.436	.707
JJ Bleday	4.0	.399	.137	.012	.211	.396	1.205	.209	.290	.429	.719
Jose Trevino	3.9	.557	.127	.004	.130	.178	.896	.219	.259	.360	.620
Matt McLain	3.8	.407	.123	.002	.140	.309	1.349	.195	.269	.353	.622
Héctor Rodríguez	3.7	.475	.114	.018	.200	.179	1.030	.232	.274	.447	.721

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.761	.173	.023	.168	.273	.923	.265	.332	.435	.767
Mookie Betts	4.6	.727	.210	.014	.248	.458	.538	.296	.375	.539	.914
Will Smith	4.4	.658	.175	.008	.218	.503	.844	.276	.374	.497	.871
Freddie Freeman	4.3	.737	.203	.011	.203	.472	.773	.304	.392	.524	.916
Teoscar Hernández	4.2	.628	.167	.011	.246	.299	1.141	.271	.332	.510	.842
Miguel Rojas	4.1	.768	.196	.004	.109	.273	.537	.282	.339	.421	.760
Alex Call	4.0	.590	.160	.011	.119	.465	.769	.254	.358	.410	.768
Max Muncy	3.9	.427	.120	.007	.258	.549	.961	.247	.367	.523	.890
Enrique Hernández	3.8	.549	.149	.010	.151	.265	.907	.245	.303	.422	.724

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections