Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 91°F

1.4% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

30.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

69.8%

Fair line (home)

-231

Proj. total

9.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.82)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.66)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.48

Over

54.6%

Under

45.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	30.2%	+239	+231
Los Angeles Dodgers	69.8%	-268	-231

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.4	5.3	2.0	2.9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	6.0	6.4	5.3	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Rhett Lowder4+ 46%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto4+ 89%6+ 63%8+ 31%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.6	.710	.146	.031	.094	.239	1.294	.226	.272	.339	.610
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.608	.163	.043	.192	.418	1.355	.248	.322	.451	.773
Sal Stewart	4.4	.602	.178	.002	.237	.346	1.068	.253	.318	.475	.793
JJ Bleday	4.3	.471	.159	.015	.199	.488	1.109	.223	.316	.431	.746
Héctor Rodríguez	4.2	.597	.141	.025	.205	.214	1.044	.244	.288	.448	.736
Juan Brito	4.1	.505	.155	.011	.106	.346	1.043	.209	.282	.342	.624
Will Banfield	4.0	.515	.133	.005	.115	.148	1.237	.202	.237	.330	.566
TJ Friedl	3.9	.530	.117	.013	.108	.348	.882	.222	.305	.357	.663
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.7	.563	.119	.019	.096	.238	.863	.229	.283	.356	.639

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.7	.788	.184	.031	.172	.312	.840	.273	.333	.450	.783
Will Smith	4.6	.691	.185	.010	.239	.557	.764	.285	.382	.518	.899
Mookie Betts	4.5	.726	.218	.015	.233	.473	.458	.300	.378	.538	.916
Max Muncy	4.4	.510	.140	.012	.298	.633	.971	.261	.377	.549	.926
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.658	.174	.012	.259	.318	1.030	.283	.343	.533	.876
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.601	.164	.021	.229	.559	.606	.285	.386	.535	.921
Hunter Feduccia	4.0	.586	.153	.013	.127	.428	.980	.244	.328	.400	.728
Freddie Freeman	3.9	.667	.193	.011	.188	.430	.634	.306	.390	.531	.921
Enrique Hernández	3.8	.568	.150	.010	.156	.279	.847	.251	.308	.431	.740

Data notes: game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections