San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Yunior Marte vs Tarik Skubal · 70°F

3.5% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

26.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

73.8%

Fair line (home)

-281

Proj. total

8.17

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 2.98)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.18)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.17

Over

50.6%

Under

49.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	26.2%	+329	+281
Los Angeles Dodgers	73.8%	-379	-281

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Yunior Marte RHP · San Francisco Giants	4.3	2.7	4.9	2.2	2.6
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.9	6.5	4.9	1.0	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Yunior Marte4+ 28%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Tarik Skubal4+ 91%6+ 66%8+ 33%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.5	.721	.115	.065	.082	.209	1.456	.231	.272	.345	.617
Turner Hill	4.4	.706	.176	.038	.059	.311	.839	.243	.305	.350	.655
Victor Bericoto	4.3	.609	.132	.017	.142	.183	1.319	.220	.257	.365	.622
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.690	.183	.038	.080	.231	.635	.253	.302	.380	.682
Brett Harris	4.1	.537	.130	.011	.088	.283	1.197	.204	.271	.315	.586
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.477	.118	.007	.143	.191	1.359	.198	.243	.347	.590
Andrew Knizner	3.9	.507	.127	.006	.098	.241	1.056	.207	.270	.329	.599
Osleivis Basabe	3.7	.542	.141	.009	.083	.177	.848	.220	.264	.336	.599
Christian Koss	3.6	.506	.135	.010	.072	.136	1.050	.210	.249	.318	.567

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	4.7	.771	.219	.017	.183	.509	.392	.287	.369	.480	.849
Freddie Freeman	4.6	.837	.242	.014	.152	.527	.615	.312	.399	.493	.892
Will Smith	4.5	.688	.186	.010	.157	.558	.634	.271	.371	.447	.818
Max Muncy	4.3	.542	.163	.009	.208	.660	.848	.254	.376	.475	.851
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.692	.178	.016	.185	.352	.905	.278	.343	.476	.819
Kyle Tucker	4.1	.621	.166	.024	.163	.579	.509	.275	.381	.474	.856
Josue De Paula	4.0	.657	.178	.012	.117	.440	.631	.270	.354	.425	.779
Tommy Edman	3.9	.666	.157	.025	.091	.280	.597	.262	.327	.397	.724
Alex Freeland	3.8	.553	.142	.014	.098	.427	.830	.242	.333	.381	.714

Data notes: away starter Yunior Marte: only 26 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Yunior Marte: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections