San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Michael King vs Brock Stewart · 69°F

4.0% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres win

41.4%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

8.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.12)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.80)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.92

Over

49.4%

Under

50.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	41.4%	+116	+142
Los Angeles Dodgers	58.6%	-126	-142

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	4.4	5.3	2.5	2.8
Brock Stewart RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	2.2	2.4	1.8	0.9	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Michael King4+ 66%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Brock Stewart4+ 21%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.666	.167	.016	.208	.571	1.062	.255	.351	.453	.804
Dustin Harris	4.7	.655	.144	.032	.101	.417	1.146	.222	.300	.344	.644
Manny Machado	4.5	.604	.146	.002	.191	.483	1.089	.233	.318	.413	.731
Ty France	4.4	.634	.146	.009	.143	.358	1.065	.237	.322	.388	.710
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.575	.147	.030	.172	.327	1.130	.232	.295	.414	.709
Austin Hays	4.2	.543	.150	.021	.132	.299	1.254	.218	.280	.369	.650
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.614	.147	.007	.104	.465	.871	.241	.333	.373	.706
Luis Campusano	4.0	.510	.128	.004	.138	.455	.988	.222	.317	.379	.696
Jake Cronenworth	3.9	.480	.119	.013	.089	.467	.952	.209	.319	.333	.651

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	4.7	.700	.200	.015	.196	.524	.581	.271	.358	.471	.829
Freddie Freeman	4.5	.738	.211	.012	.149	.505	.863	.280	.370	.452	.822
Will Smith	4.4	.614	.170	.009	.172	.534	.888	.252	.353	.436	.789
Max Muncy	4.3	.469	.140	.007	.206	.630	1.132	.226	.348	.437	.786
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.561	.157	.019	.177	.589	.732	.253	.362	.454	.816
Teoscar Hernández	4.1	.584	.152	.013	.183	.333	1.159	.248	.315	.441	.756
Josue De Paula	4.0	.587	.160	.009	.125	.428	.878	.247	.332	.402	.735
Andy Pages	3.9	.564	.165	.014	.163	.279	.862	.255	.319	.447	.766
Tommy Edman	3.8	.590	.130	.021	.090	.256	.813	.241	.307	.369	.676

Data notes: home starter Brock Stewart: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Brock Stewart: only 54 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections