San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Matt Wilkinson vs Jack Dreyer · 69°F

3.8% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

32.9%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

67.1%

Fair line (home)

-204

Proj. total

7.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.30)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

7.95

Over

40.9%

Under

59.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	32.9%	+236	+204
Los Angeles Dodgers	67.1%	-264	-204

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matt Wilkinson LHP · San Francisco Giants	3.1	2.3	3.3	1.3	1.5
Jack Dreyer LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	2.3	2.3	1.9	0.7	0.7

Strikeout ladder

Matt Wilkinson4+ 18%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Jack Dreyer4+ 19%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.6	.738	.117	.074	.077	.311	1.353	.235	.292	.351	.643
Jung Hoo Lee	4.5	.741	.192	.041	.091	.359	.573	.260	.327	.393	.721
Victor Bericoto	4.4	.635	.139	.015	.143	.277	1.195	.227	.280	.373	.653
Andrew Knizner	4.3	.568	.154	.008	.110	.374	1.027	.218	.298	.348	.646
Brett Harris	4.2	.535	.130	.010	.089	.410	1.077	.206	.296	.318	.614
Scott Bandura	4.1	.593	.154	.026	.069	.370	1.035	.229	.306	.341	.647
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.480	.119	.010	.142	.253	1.224	.204	.261	.357	.618
Grant McCray	3.9	.434	.112	.026	.085	.373	1.266	.191	.274	.312	.586
Christian Koss	3.7	.548	.131	.009	.074	.211	.971	.219	.273	.326	.599

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	4.6	.747	.212	.014	.179	.514	.438	.283	.367	.473	.840
Tommy Edman	4.5	.753	.176	.023	.116	.301	.759	.259	.322	.397	.719
Teoscar Hernández	4.4	.689	.183	.017	.187	.365	1.011	.270	.337	.465	.803
Freddie Freeman	4.3	.752	.213	.011	.134	.489	.658	.296	.384	.466	.850
Miguel Rojas	4.2	.768	.209	.005	.080	.296	.441	.275	.332	.394	.726
Max Muncy	4.1	.499	.149	.009	.194	.609	.860	.249	.371	.468	.840
Josue De Paula	4.0	.622	.181	.010	.113	.451	.695	.264	.352	.419	.771
Enrique Hernández	3.9	.578	.153	.010	.105	.287	.788	.238	.299	.376	.675
Hunter Feduccia	3.7	.562	.135	.015	.078	.438	.824	.241	.333	.362	.695

Data notes: away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 20 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 61 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections