San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Nick Pivetta vs Tyler Glasnow · 70°F

0.9% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

39.9%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

60.1%

Fair line (home)

-151

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.83)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.61)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.45

Over

52.5%

Under

47.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	39.9%	+151	+151
Los Angeles Dodgers	60.1%	-165	-151

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Pivetta RHP · San Diego Padres	3.9	4.3	3.8	1.6	2.0
Tyler Glasnow RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	6.0	4.4	1.9	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Nick Pivetta4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 5%

Tyler Glasnow4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.675	.168	.016	.205	.534	1.133	.257	.346	.453	.800
Dustin Harris	4.6	.642	.140	.035	.095	.385	1.209	.218	.291	.337	.628
Manny Machado	4.5	.567	.148	.002	.201	.452	1.181	.228	.308	.415	.723
Ty France	4.4	.645	.148	.008	.131	.340	1.135	.237	.314	.378	.692
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.560	.149	.030	.170	.308	1.205	.230	.290	.412	.702
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.616	.129	.006	.099	.448	.972	.230	.317	.348	.665
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.505	.131	.015	.086	.463	1.066	.208	.310	.326	.635
Samad Taylor	4.0	.543	.094	.026	.079	.367	1.266	.208	.287	.315	.602
Ethan Salas	3.8	.502	.129	.017	.089	.318	.930	.211	.281	.334	.616

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.6	.537	.153	.035	.295	.639	1.297	.261	.368	.543	.911
Mookie Betts	4.5	.641	.192	.013	.197	.477	.651	.263	.345	.466	.811
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.681	.206	.010	.151	.462	.945	.272	.356	.448	.804
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.585	.144	.011	.205	.313	1.307	.241	.302	.441	.743
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.548	.145	.023	.186	.545	.801	.251	.353	.459	.812
Max Muncy	4.0	.414	.125	.007	.204	.551	1.169	.217	.332	.435	.767
Andy Pages	3.9	.559	.162	.013	.171	.273	.940	.250	.310	.443	.753
Hunter Feduccia	3.8	.486	.123	.012	.084	.417	1.133	.208	.298	.326	.624
Tommy Edman	3.7	.540	.121	.021	.098	.239	.874	.229	.291	.364	.655

Data notes: away starter Nick Pivetta: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Nick Pivetta: only 54 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections