San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 70°F

0.9% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres win

33.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers win

67.0%

Fair line (home)

-203

Proj. total

9.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.89)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.57)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.45

Over

54.5%

Under

37.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	33.0%	+189	+203
Los Angeles Dodgers	67.0%	-208	-203

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	4.8	4.3	5.2	3.0	3.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.9	5.8	5.5	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Robbie Ray4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 7%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 23%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.706	.181	.015	.214	.455	1.016	.266	.343	.469	.812
Dustin Harris	4.6	.706	.146	.034	.101	.328	1.081	.234	.296	.356	.652
Manny Machado	4.5	.634	.161	.002	.187	.392	1.068	.242	.311	.420	.731
Ty France	4.4	.687	.152	.010	.137	.286	1.015	.248	.317	.395	.712
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.613	.162	.036	.166	.256	1.099	.245	.295	.428	.722
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.676	.154	.006	.096	.372	.882	.248	.320	.368	.688
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.533	.143	.014	.091	.385	.984	.217	.304	.340	.644
Samad Taylor	3.9	.591	.105	.026	.079	.306	1.157	.222	.288	.332	.620
Ethan Salas	3.8	.536	.133	.018	.087	.262	.853	.219	.277	.341	.619

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	4.7	.716	.205	.014	.218	.594	.577	.281	.376	.497	.873
Shohei Ohtani	4.6	.535	.155	.033	.322	.767	1.138	.273	.399	.584	.983
Will Smith	4.5	.607	.161	.009	.203	.610	.889	.255	.365	.459	.824
Freddie Freeman	4.4	.695	.204	.009	.171	.571	.830	.285	.384	.479	.863
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.590	.149	.015	.215	.399	1.205	.251	.326	.464	.790
Kyle Tucker	4.2	.536	.154	.021	.199	.661	.710	.260	.381	.486	.867
Andy Pages	4.1	.574	.169	.013	.207	.345	.892	.261	.331	.482	.813
Max Muncy	4.0	.426	.128	.009	.217	.634	1.019	.237	.367	.480	.847
Tommy Edman	3.9	.590	.134	.013	.114	.272	.826	.243	.310	.386	.696

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections