Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 8, 2026 · George Kirby vs Tyler Phillips · 84°F

0.9% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

55.0%

Miami Marlins win

45.0%

Fair line (home)

+122

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.48)Miami Marlins (mean 3.81)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.29

Over

44.1%

Under

55.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	55.0%	-123	-122
Miami Marlins	45.0%	+114	+122

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.9	.742	.182	.005	.096	.695	.847	.247	.361	.363	.724
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.667	.205	.010	.137	.544	1.071	.249	.356	.404	.761
Dominic Canzone	4.7	.708	.202	.005	.169	.409	.962	.257	.327	.427	.754
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.494	.143	.004	.227	.586	1.146	.222	.331	.435	.765
Josh Naylor	4.4	.755	.184	.004	.138	.413	.596	.271	.345	.423	.769
Luke Raley	4.3	.578	.147	.014	.155	.344	1.221	.232	.317	.399	.717
Cole Young	4.2	.681	.176	.023	.070	.435	.675	.255	.343	.371	.714
Victor Robles	4.1	.654	.185	.011	.046	.318	.841	.241	.315	.334	.649
Colt Emerson	4.0	.546	.158	.018	.087	.376	.963	.227	.312	.354	.666

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Liam Hicks	4.5	.800	.171	.017	.112	.380	.640	.269	.344	.402	.746
Otto Lopez	4.4	.899	.215	.029	.084	.224	.694	.293	.335	.419	.753
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.936	.148	.055	.042	.324	.599	.296	.352	.392	.745
Kyle Stowers	4.2	.570	.182	.023	.151	.298	1.243	.238	.302	.414	.716
Owen Caissie	4.1	.573	.184	.013	.123	.284	1.401	.234	.294	.386	.680
Heriberto Hernández	4.0	.561	.145	.024	.128	.305	1.155	.232	.297	.388	.685
Jakob Marsee	3.9	.560	.139	.038	.074	.360	.907	.231	.312	.356	.669
Joe Mack	3.8	.532	.138	.010	.097	.234	1.083	.220	.275	.347	.622
Javier Sanoja	3.7	.652	.186	.023	.060	.186	.425	.265	.307	.384	.691

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections