Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Janson Junk · 85°F

1.8% edge · Miami Marlins

Seattle Mariners win

51.5%

Miami Marlins win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

8.51

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.44)Miami Marlins (mean 4.06)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.51

Over

42.6%

Under

49.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	51.5%	-119	-106
Miami Marlins	48.5%	+110	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.8	.788	.190	.006	.115	.506	.790	.258	.342	.386	.728
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.690	.210	.012	.154	.407	1.026	.256	.339	.422	.762
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.733	.207	.005	.192	.308	.892	.267	.321	.453	.775
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.520	.144	.004	.253	.450	1.088	.231	.316	.459	.775
Josh Naylor	4.4	.759	.181	.005	.162	.320	.555	.276	.335	.444	.779
Luke Raley	4.3	.577	.149	.017	.175	.269	1.165	.237	.307	.420	.727
Cole Young	4.2	.683	.168	.021	.067	.350	.646	.251	.324	.360	.684
Victor Robles	4.0	.684	.187	.012	.056	.245	.786	.253	.311	.355	.666
Colt Emerson	3.9	.564	.167	.018	.103	.286	.898	.238	.305	.381	.686

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Liam Hicks	4.6	.773	.165	.014	.120	.487	.630	.264	.353	.400	.753
Otto Lopez	4.5	.891	.220	.022	.090	.288	.681	.292	.342	.419	.761
Xavier Edwards	4.4	.919	.147	.051	.050	.396	.612	.293	.361	.393	.754
Kyle Stowers	4.3	.549	.182	.020	.157	.388	1.234	.236	.314	.415	.729
Heriberto Hernández	4.2	.562	.145	.024	.139	.405	1.165	.232	.314	.395	.709
Griffin Conine	4.1	.525	.146	.012	.157	.361	1.310	.227	.302	.400	.702
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.590	.157	.031	.082	.323	.981	.240	.314	.369	.684
Jakob Marsee	3.9	.539	.126	.037	.075	.456	.870	.231	.331	.358	.689
Leo Jiménez	3.7	.599	.153	.007	.066	.297	.784	.246	.325	.356	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections