Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Parker Messick vs Sandy Alcantara · 83°F

1.0% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

48.6%

Miami Marlins win

51.4%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.08)Miami Marlins (mean 4.05)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.13

Over

45.8%

Under

54.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	48.6%	+106	+106
Miami Marlins	51.4%	-115	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.8	.698	.211	.026	.100	.503	1.073	.244	.331	.377	.707
Brayan Rocchio	4.7	.780	.203	.029	.090	.340	.719	.259	.326	.384	.709
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.814	.225	.016	.141	.375	.655	.287	.349	.450	.799
Kyle Manzardo	4.5	.579	.167	.019	.165	.420	1.114	.233	.314	.408	.723
Rhys Hoskins	4.3	.530	.159	.006	.154	.499	1.171	.224	.323	.390	.713
Kahlil Watson	4.2	.564	.162	.015	.113	.327	1.268	.220	.288	.358	.645
Daniel Schneemann	4.1	.570	.173	.009	.093	.367	1.049	.226	.299	.351	.650
Austin Hedges	4.0	.595	.124	.006	.089	.291	.879	.221	.285	.330	.615
Steven Kwan	3.9	.730	.152	.022	.055	.365	.350	.273	.346	.376	.722

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.6	.901	.211	.036	.104	.312	.696	.293	.347	.433	.779
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.587	.168	.021	.171	.462	1.256	.237	.322	.418	.740
Xavier Edwards	4.4	.939	.143	.040	.042	.402	.631	.294	.363	.382	.745
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.765	.222	.036	.072	.267	.468	.274	.323	.401	.724
Kyle Stowers	4.2	.536	.165	.029	.162	.394	1.313	.238	.319	.428	.747
Leo Jiménez	4.1	.657	.160	.009	.074	.338	.920	.248	.331	.358	.689
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.582	.157	.026	.087	.345	1.029	.240	.321	.373	.694
Jakob Marsee	3.9	.524	.130	.034	.072	.452	.924	.226	.328	.350	.678
Joe Mack	3.7	.521	.123	.009	.113	.302	1.045	.225	.295	.366	.661

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections