San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Germán Márquez vs Ryan Gusto · 85°F

0.7% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

45.5%

Miami Marlins win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

9.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.41)Miami Marlins (mean 4.68)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.09

Over

41.4%

Under

48.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	45.5%	+119	+120
Miami Marlins	54.5%	-129	-120

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.772	.200	.015	.180	.511	.939	.274	.358	.455	.812
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.655	.173	.018	.105	.525	.950	.232	.330	.359	.689
Manny Machado	4.6	.668	.184	.003	.196	.435	.934	.254	.327	.441	.768
Ty France	4.5	.726	.161	.017	.121	.301	.907	.253	.326	.390	.716
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.658	.186	.027	.148	.302	.962	.251	.307	.420	.727
Luis Campusano	4.3	.621	.160	.005	.144	.447	.876	.245	.331	.404	.735
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.580	.170	.005	.132	.400	.860	.238	.319	.392	.710
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.678	.157	.004	.102	.387	.725	.258	.333	.387	.720
Sung-Mun Song	3.9	.653	.136	.010	.074	.314	.697	.241	.305	.346	.650

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.934	.224	.036	.114	.328	.628	.303	.357	.451	.807
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.608	.187	.035	.203	.463	1.272	.256	.341	.470	.811
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.621	.172	.020	.191	.465	1.114	.254	.340	.453	.793
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.938	.144	.056	.045	.438	.542	.305	.379	.406	.785
Liam Hicks	4.2	.727	.151	.016	.114	.477	.519	.272	.365	.414	.779
Griffin Conine	4.1	.567	.158	.010	.173	.423	1.248	.247	.331	.436	.767
Jakob Marsee	4.0	.556	.140	.032	.090	.503	.863	.236	.341	.373	.714
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.688	.204	.036	.076	.258	.397	.275	.327	.414	.740
Joe Mack	3.8	.530	.136	.008	.134	.325	.951	.234	.306	.395	.700

Data notes: home starter Ryan Gusto: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections