San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Randy Vásquez vs Eury Pérez · 85°F

1.7% edge · Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres win

41.9%

Miami Marlins win

58.1%

Fair line (home)

-139

Proj. total

8.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.13)Miami Marlins (mean 4.76)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.89

Over

49.6%

Under

42.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	41.9%	+125	+139
Miami Marlins	58.1%	-135	-139

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.713	.186	.015	.185	.521	1.063	.262	.349	.445	.794
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.588	.166	.015	.105	.532	1.088	.216	.320	.343	.662
Manny Machado	4.5	.613	.162	.002	.197	.441	1.078	.238	.315	.423	.737
Ty France	4.4	.656	.156	.013	.134	.300	1.043	.240	.313	.386	.699
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.600	.178	.028	.154	.322	1.079	.241	.302	.416	.717
Luis Rengifo	4.2	.669	.136	.015	.086	.320	.843	.235	.300	.344	.644
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.540	.152	.006	.141	.404	.985	.229	.311	.388	.700
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.637	.147	.004	.097	.390	.833	.248	.327	.373	.700
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.570	.136	.005	.092	.327	.878	.227	.297	.347	.644

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.950	.220	.037	.111	.329	.571	.304	.358	.449	.807
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.627	.189	.034	.205	.472	1.219	.260	.347	.475	.822
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.626	.168	.021	.192	.481	1.049	.256	.344	.455	.799
Xavier Edwards	4.4	.928	.131	.059	.051	.456	.511	.302	.380	.406	.786
Liam Hicks	4.3	.748	.152	.015	.113	.480	.502	.278	.372	.419	.791
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.751	.227	.034	.075	.274	.394	.281	.332	.415	.747
Griffin Conine	4.0	.551	.159	.010	.174	.408	1.173	.249	.333	.444	.777
Esteury Ruiz	3.9	.592	.162	.024	.093	.347	.881	.249	.332	.389	.720
Jakob Marsee	3.8	.531	.133	.036	.080	.482	.774	.237	.344	.373	.717

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections