San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Janson Junk · 82°F

2.9% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

48.4%

Miami Marlins win

51.6%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.44)Miami Marlins (mean 4.46)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.9

Over

49.5%

Under

50.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	48.4%	+115	+106
Miami Marlins	51.6%	-125	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.815	.220	.017	.190	.411	.795	.286	.353	.476	.829
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.696	.191	.017	.113	.426	.826	.243	.324	.377	.701
Manny Machado	4.6	.727	.194	.003	.202	.360	.807	.268	.328	.461	.789
Ty France	4.5	.747	.186	.017	.126	.242	.809	.262	.322	.408	.730
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.692	.202	.033	.153	.252	.846	.264	.311	.442	.753
Luis Rengifo	4.3	.769	.149	.016	.085	.251	.617	.258	.308	.368	.676
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.629	.176	.005	.142	.310	.744	.251	.313	.412	.726
Luis Campusano	4.0	.635	.161	.006	.138	.349	.726	.258	.329	.420	.749
Sung-Mun Song	3.9	.683	.145	.011	.083	.256	.610	.253	.305	.368	.673

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.935	.216	.038	.100	.338	.648	.300	.356	.438	.794
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.584	.189	.033	.189	.482	1.312	.248	.338	.452	.791
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.606	.168	.019	.175	.489	1.153	.247	.337	.434	.771
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.922	.135	.055	.040	.477	.570	.300	.380	.395	.775
Liam Hicks	4.2	.750	.149	.014	.102	.486	.555	.276	.372	.407	.778
Griffin Conine	4.1	.551	.156	.008	.157	.421	1.288	.238	.324	.413	.737
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.599	.161	.025	.082	.385	.981	.243	.331	.371	.702
Graham Pauley	3.9	.495	.176	.016	.101	.379	.925	.225	.307	.371	.678
Joe Mack	3.8	.516	.127	.009	.111	.354	1.005	.224	.303	.365	.667

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections