Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips · 83°F

5.7% edge · Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies win

56.2%

Miami Marlins win

43.8%

Fair line (home)

+128

Proj. total

8.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.78)Miami Marlins (mean 3.94)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.72

Over

55.5%

Under

44.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	56.2%	-171	-128
Miami Marlins	43.8%	+157	+128

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.9	.905	.202	.025	.121	.361	.875	.277	.336	.413	.750
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.502	.125	.011	.281	.806	1.323	.233	.370	.484	.853
Bryce Harper	4.7	.660	.219	.013	.196	.670	.910	.273	.382	.482	.863
Brandon Marsh	4.6	.774	.191	.023	.121	.444	1.169	.269	.344	.415	.759
Alec Bohm	4.5	.774	.194	.013	.112	.350	.640	.267	.332	.403	.735
Bryson Stott	4.4	.719	.166	.033	.096	.419	.656	.258	.334	.391	.725
J.T. Realmuto	4.3	.657	.172	.012	.110	.327	.928	.246	.315	.381	.696
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.2	.543	.158	.008	.113	.455	1.035	.225	.318	.365	.683
Justin Crawford	4.0	.759	.162	.030	.044	.310	.775	.269	.330	.364	.693

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.6	.915	.213	.037	.096	.253	.788	.292	.337	.426	.762
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.579	.179	.036	.162	.362	1.509	.236	.309	.418	.726
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.577	.161	.022	.162	.384	1.349	.233	.308	.408	.716
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.924	.135	.054	.038	.371	.684	.297	.361	.388	.750
Liam Hicks	4.2	.727	.147	.017	.094	.391	.659	.265	.348	.390	.737
Griffin Conine	4.1	.550	.146	.013	.140	.326	1.459	.229	.299	.389	.688
Javier Sanoja	4.0	.704	.209	.032	.058	.222	.494	.269	.314	.390	.704
Joe Mack	3.9	.535	.137	.010	.112	.274	1.153	.224	.286	.364	.649
Jakob Marsee	3.7	.503	.124	.030	.067	.393	.987	.221	.314	.338	.652

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections