Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara · 84°F

1.8% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

47.6%

Miami Marlins win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

8.78

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.39)Miami Marlins (mean 4.39)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.78

Over

48.5%

Under

43.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	47.6%	+114	+110
Miami Marlins	52.4%	-124	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.8	.903	.216	.021	.120	.281	.855	.280	.329	.417	.746
Bryson Stott	4.7	.828	.183	.036	.105	.378	.705	.268	.332	.401	.733
Bryce Harper	4.6	.696	.228	.013	.202	.560	.900	.285	.377	.500	.876
Alec Bohm	4.5	.826	.202	.016	.110	.289	.628	.278	.332	.414	.746
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.760	.201	.020	.124	.361	1.100	.276	.340	.430	.770
Edmundo Sosa	4.3	.710	.179	.030	.122	.157	.872	.257	.297	.406	.702
Justin Crawford	4.2	.825	.168	.032	.051	.263	.799	.277	.328	.377	.704
Bryan De La Cruz	4.1	.643	.151	.005	.114	.259	1.014	.242	.294	.375	.669
Garrett Stubbs	3.9	.611	.127	.008	.072	.292	.920	.228	.296	.328	.624

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.6	.949	.228	.040	.109	.277	.681	.308	.353	.455	.808
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.602	.191	.036	.194	.381	1.370	.252	.324	.460	.784
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.592	.173	.021	.192	.383	1.228	.246	.318	.445	.763
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.951	.146	.057	.048	.363	.593	.308	.369	.411	.781
Liam Hicks	4.2	.761	.154	.016	.110	.403	.566	.279	.358	.417	.775
Griffin Conine	4.1	.565	.163	.010	.169	.349	1.328	.245	.316	.430	.746
Jakob Marsee	4.0	.584	.143	.035	.082	.423	.935	.240	.330	.371	.701
Graham Pauley	3.9	.527	.176	.012	.113	.304	.938	.234	.299	.386	.685
Joe Mack	3.7	.547	.129	.010	.127	.268	1.011	.236	.296	.389	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections