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9.4% edge · Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds
July 29, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Ryan Gusto · 85°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
51.2%
Miami Marlins win
48.8%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
8.29
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.31)Miami Marlins (mean 3.98)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.29
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 51.2% | -162 | -105 |
| Miami Marlins | 48.8% | +149 | +105 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.8 | .841 | .205 | .020 | .132 | .320 | .933 | .269 | .324 | .413 | .738 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.7 | .756 | .169 | .032 | .110 | .425 | .770 | .252 | .325 | .385 | .710 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.6 | .633 | .203 | .013 | .208 | .623 | .960 | .269 | .373 | .486 | .860 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.5 | .766 | .196 | .011 | .121 | .333 | .675 | .267 | .329 | .408 | .737 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.4 | .627 | .178 | .013 | .117 | .331 | 1.012 | .235 | .304 | .374 | .679 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.3 | .670 | .181 | .021 | .130 | .400 | 1.159 | .261 | .334 | .420 | .755 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 4.2 | .608 | .145 | .005 | .127 | .296 | 1.117 | .230 | .288 | .369 | .658 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.0 | .752 | .153 | .031 | .048 | .294 | .838 | .264 | .324 | .361 | .684 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3.9 | .613 | .156 | .027 | .110 | .169 | .860 | .245 | .291 | .392 | .683 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | 4.6 | .914 | .210 | .037 | .092 | .295 | .787 | .293 | .343 | .424 | .767 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.5 | .596 | .164 | .020 | .170 | .439 | 1.368 | .237 | .318 | .414 | .732 |
| Liam Hicks | 4.4 | .772 | .152 | .016 | .104 | .452 | .669 | .270 | .358 | .399 | .756 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.3 | .919 | .143 | .038 | .038 | .372 | .681 | .294 | .359 | .380 | .739 |
| Javier Sanoja | 4.2 | .736 | .221 | .037 | .068 | .260 | .513 | .273 | .322 | .401 | .723 |
| Leo Jiménez | 4.1 | .640 | .175 | .011 | .073 | .327 | 1.013 | .247 | .326 | .360 | .686 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.0 | .503 | .152 | .027 | .147 | .376 | 1.312 | .234 | .315 | .416 | .731 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 3.8 | .555 | .151 | .024 | .079 | .320 | 1.101 | .234 | .311 | .360 | .670 |
| Brian Navarreto | 3.7 | .513 | .140 | .010 | .066 | .220 | 1.066 | .210 | .264 | .313 | .577 |
Data notes: home starter Ryan Gusto: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections