Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Carmen Mlodzinski vs Janson Junk · 85°F

1.0% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.2%

Miami Marlins win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.44)Miami Marlins (mean 4.16)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.6

Over

46.4%

Under

45.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.2%	-101	-101
Miami Marlins	49.8%	-108	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	1.029	.218	.015	.050	.198	.721	.288	.324	.375	.699
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.675	.196	.010	.238	.364	1.074	.260	.322	.475	.797
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.753	.189	.020	.159	.421	.982	.272	.348	.444	.792
Spencer Horwitz	4.5	.740	.228	.012	.127	.484	.659	.280	.366	.440	.806
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.825	.208	.028	.076	.260	.744	.279	.330	.400	.729
Ronny Simon	4.3	.737	.186	.021	.070	.306	.796	.258	.317	.369	.686
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.579	.182	.014	.167	.352	1.087	.249	.320	.437	.757
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.615	.159	.010	.106	.281	.738	.238	.299	.372	.671
Henry Davis	3.9	.535	.152	.006	.128	.306	.867	.230	.301	.383	.684

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Xavier Edwards	4.6	1.009	.151	.063	.041	.487	.613	.306	.383	.402	.785
Otto Lopez	4.5	.898	.215	.036	.086	.323	.635	.296	.352	.427	.778
Griffin Conine	4.4	.590	.161	.011	.154	.444	1.409	.233	.318	.398	.716
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.574	.157	.019	.161	.464	1.150	.239	.328	.417	.745
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.593	.142	.032	.077	.531	.943	.233	.341	.354	.695
Agustín Ramírez	4.1	.583	.190	.012	.130	.341	.852	.246	.317	.408	.725
Owen Caissie	4.0	.530	.173	.008	.129	.383	1.354	.235	.315	.396	.711
Leo Jiménez	3.9	.621	.165	.007	.069	.343	.836	.251	.337	.364	.701
Joe Mack	3.8	.518	.132	.007	.113	.333	.990	.226	.301	.368	.669

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections