Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Eury Pérez · 85°F

0.2% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

51.7%

Miami Marlins win

48.3%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

7.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.95)Miami Marlins (mean 3.59)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.53

Over

43.9%

Under

43.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	51.7%	-111	-107
Miami Marlins	48.3%	+102	+107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.901	.197	.012	.046	.257	1.005	.259	.307	.339	.646
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.559	.160	.010	.220	.433	1.365	.227	.304	.427	.731
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.625	.159	.016	.145	.486	1.264	.236	.327	.393	.720
Spencer Horwitz	4.4	.643	.189	.011	.125	.605	.871	.256	.366	.411	.777
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.731	.182	.026	.078	.322	.965	.257	.322	.376	.697
Ronny Simon	4.2	.640	.156	.016	.062	.373	1.037	.229	.303	.327	.630
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.1	.499	.143	.010	.158	.417	1.335	.221	.308	.395	.703
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.551	.132	.009	.104	.338	.952	.219	.293	.346	.639
Henry Davis	3.9	.462	.127	.004	.128	.363	1.083	.208	.295	.357	.652

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Xavier Edwards	4.5	.944	.134	.059	.042	.403	.777	.288	.355	.379	.735
Otto Lopez	4.4	.854	.197	.035	.090	.269	.815	.286	.335	.416	.750
Griffin Conine	4.3	.537	.147	.009	.138	.366	1.621	.213	.288	.362	.650
Heriberto Hernández	4.2	.523	.152	.017	.143	.380	1.368	.221	.300	.385	.685
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.528	.135	.033	.073	.445	1.134	.214	.310	.331	.641
Javier Sanoja	4.0	.693	.202	.032	.057	.239	.542	.263	.312	.381	.693
Owen Caissie	3.9	.465	.152	.009	.122	.313	1.536	.212	.282	.363	.645
Joe Mack	3.8	.492	.127	.008	.105	.287	1.191	.212	.279	.346	.624
Esteury Ruiz	3.6	.500	.140	.023	.081	.297	1.078	.227	.306	.358	.664

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections