Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Eury Pérez · 72°F

0.6% edge · Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals win

36.5%

Miami Marlins win

63.5%

Fair line (home)

-174

Proj. total

7.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.37)Miami Marlins (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.83

Over

47.6%

Under

52.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	36.5%	+164	+174
Miami Marlins	63.5%	-180	-174

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.7	3.9	5.2	1.7	2.4
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.3	6.2	4.5	1.7	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Jake Irvin4+ 56%6+ 19%8+ 3%

Eury Pérez4+ 89%6+ 59%8+ 26%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Daylen Lile	4.6	.710	.177	.060	.112	.311	.963	.247	.306	.395	.701
Dylan Crews	4.5	.580	.165	.014	.135	.335	1.190	.216	.286	.361	.647
Brady House	4.4	.655	.164	.014	.131	.228	1.323	.232	.277	.373	.650
Abimelec Ortiz	4.3	.505	.172	.008	.171	.355	1.160	.218	.290	.397	.687
Harry Ford	4.2	.506	.146	.004	.085	.479	1.190	.202	.304	.314	.618
José Tena	4.1	.606	.161	.023	.083	.316	1.204	.232	.297	.354	.651
Jacob Young	4.0	.652	.140	.019	.059	.291	.822	.238	.305	.336	.640
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.621	.078	.026	.035	.386	.945	.219	.301	.287	.588
Andrew Pinckney	3.8	.543	.104	.017	.085	.244	1.281	.216	.277	.329	.606

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.997	.151	.062	.045	.431	.548	.303	.372	.402	.774
Griffin Conine	4.5	.652	.173	.012	.207	.426	1.212	.260	.336	.463	.799
Owen Caissie	4.4	.605	.188	.014	.171	.399	1.326	.249	.325	.434	.759
Otto Lopez	4.3	.843	.207	.042	.086	.268	.518	.296	.345	.434	.779
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.613	.154	.036	.090	.496	.791	.247	.347	.384	.730
Heriberto Hernández	4.1	.542	.168	.017	.174	.398	1.029	.248	.329	.448	.776
Joe Mack	4.0	.592	.145	.009	.161	.307	.907	.251	.316	.431	.747
Javier Sanoja	3.8	.681	.215	.026	.068	.224	.324	.276	.322	.408	.730
Esteury Ruiz	3.7	.563	.159	.021	.093	.315	.872	.251	.331	.396	.727

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections