Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Brad Lord vs Ryan Gusto · 84°F

0.6% edge · Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals win

42.0%

Miami Marlins win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

8.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.89)Miami Marlins (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.35

Over

52.0%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	42.0%	+130	+138
Miami Marlins	58.0%	-141	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brad Lord RHP · Washington Nationals	2.3	2.0	2.4	0.9	1.0
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.5	2.6	3.5	1.0	1.4

Strikeout ladder

Brad Lord4+ 12%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Ryan Gusto4+ 26%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Daylen Lile	4.7	.775	.204	.062	.114	.303	.813	.264	.319	.418	.737
Jorbit Vivas	4.6	.734	.170	.016	.066	.457	.647	.242	.330	.341	.671
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.583	.194	.005	.172	.379	1.009	.234	.306	.410	.716
Abimelec Ortiz	4.4	.564	.186	.006	.190	.343	.986	.236	.304	.428	.732
Brady House	4.3	.702	.174	.015	.130	.201	1.092	.252	.293	.399	.692
Keibert Ruiz	4.2	.700	.172	.003	.106	.204	.494	.249	.294	.376	.670
Dylan Crews	4.1	.578	.149	.015	.118	.294	.926	.232	.299	.375	.674
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.674	.089	.027	.035	.382	.824	.233	.312	.303	.616
Jacob Young	3.8	.672	.139	.021	.060	.278	.651	.254	.319	.357	.676

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.6	.667	.169	.046	.097	.557	.907	.244	.346	.382	.728
Owen Caissie	4.5	.620	.197	.013	.169	.431	1.394	.247	.326	.427	.753
Griffin Conine	4.4	.628	.175	.010	.197	.435	1.218	.257	.338	.456	.794
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.914	.136	.050	.039	.436	.526	.296	.371	.388	.759
Otto Lopez	4.2	.826	.186	.037	.079	.287	.538	.290	.343	.417	.760
Heriberto Hernández	4.1	.551	.166	.018	.172	.437	1.024	.250	.336	.448	.784
Joe Mack	4.0	.588	.157	.008	.155	.323	.936	.250	.317	.425	.742
Agustín Ramírez	3.9	.566	.191	.015	.125	.321	.729	.255	.325	.424	.749
Leo Jiménez	3.8	.601	.156	.008	.074	.321	.701	.253	.339	.372	.711

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections