Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 13, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Tyler Phillips · 84°F

1.3% edge · Miami Marlins

Pittsburgh Pirates win

52.3%

Miami Marlins win

47.7%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

8.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.49)Miami Marlins (mean 4.07)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.56

Over

46.3%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	52.3%	-121	-109
Miami Marlins	47.7%	+111	+109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.9	.791	.234	.012	.118	.651	.726	.276	.380	.422	.802
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.651	.192	.011	.211	.459	1.120	.248	.326	.446	.772
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.731	.192	.019	.134	.517	1.038	.263	.353	.417	.770
Nick Gonzales	4.6	.844	.215	.028	.068	.337	.799	.277	.338	.390	.728
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.607	.174	.012	.155	.483	1.167	.241	.331	.410	.741
Jacob Gonzalez	4.3	.655	.162	.010	.101	.370	.807	.236	.309	.359	.668
Jake Mangum	4.2	.876	.188	.011	.040	.237	.675	.283	.331	.367	.698
Jared Triolo	4.1	.643	.166	.010	.057	.486	.871	.244	.340	.343	.683
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.592	.154	.013	.084	.411	1.065	.236	.320	.357	.677

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.6	.652	.163	.045	.084	.523	1.096	.234	.332	.359	.691
Xavier Edwards	4.5	.965	.149	.059	.040	.430	.640	.299	.369	.394	.763
Otto Lopez	4.4	.871	.204	.036	.082	.283	.679	.292	.343	.420	.763
Griffin Conine	4.3	.561	.160	.010	.156	.386	1.440	.230	.307	.398	.705
Agustín Ramírez	4.2	.602	.198	.012	.131	.320	.942	.246	.313	.406	.720
Leo Jiménez	4.1	.661	.171	.008	.068	.326	.914	.249	.332	.356	.688
Owen Caissie	4.0	.523	.170	.009	.136	.354	1.404	.233	.308	.398	.706
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.679	.210	.032	.063	.238	.421	.272	.322	.401	.722
Esteury Ruiz	3.8	.571	.157	.026	.077	.315	.976	.247	.326	.379	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections