Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Ranger Suarez vs Sandy Alcantara · 72°F

1.6% edge · Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox win

52.3%

Miami Marlins win

47.7%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

8.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.25)Miami Marlins (mean 3.83)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.08

Over

50.3%

Under

38.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.3%	-122	-110
Miami Marlins	47.7%	+113	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	4.9	4.3	5.0	1.4	1.9
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	6.0	4.6	6.2	2.0	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Ranger Suarez4+ 65%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Sandy Alcantara4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.784	.198	.019	.047	.460	.947	.243	.321	.330	.651
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.795	.243	.028	.118	.183	.896	.266	.303	.412	.715
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.659	.219	.022	.164	.434	.948	.258	.332	.441	.772
Willson Contreras	4.5	.628	.190	.015	.172	.434	1.077	.257	.351	.446	.797
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.675	.197	.020	.105	.457	.638	.256	.338	.398	.736
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.703	.217	.014	.090	.274	.491	.263	.327	.395	.722
Jarren Duran	4.2	.601	.193	.059	.093	.303	.999	.248	.310	.402	.712
Mickey Gasper	4.1	.632	.179	.013	.080	.361	.732	.248	.325	.370	.695
Anthony Seigler	3.9	.564	.175	.019	.060	.390	.759	.233	.315	.344	.660

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.6	.910	.212	.040	.070	.284	.667	.289	.337	.407	.745
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.596	.185	.018	.146	.416	1.278	.235	.312	.399	.710
Kyle Stowers	4.4	.579	.177	.029	.143	.386	1.351	.237	.312	.406	.719
Agustín Ramírez	4.3	.638	.213	.012	.098	.322	.920	.247	.310	.383	.694
Xavier Edwards	4.2	.899	.138	.035	.027	.348	.599	.290	.353	.367	.720
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.586	.138	.038	.066	.447	.934	.232	.325	.347	.672
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.721	.224	.031	.056	.228	.393	.279	.324	.402	.726
Esteury Ruiz	3.8	.563	.151	.021	.071	.320	1.026	.235	.312	.353	.665
Joe Mack	3.7	.536	.143	.009	.108	.276	.973	.234	.297	.377	.674

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections