Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Jackson Kent vs Janson Junk · 80°F

4.2% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

44.9%

Miami Marlins win

55.1%

Fair line (home)

-123

Proj. total

8.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.98)Miami Marlins (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.25

Over

44.4%

Under

55.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	44.9%	+141	+123
Miami Marlins	55.1%	-153	-123

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.7	3.6	5.0	1.5	2.1
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	5.1	3.2	5.5	1.1	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Kent4+ 49%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Janson Junk4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Daylen Lile	4.7	.833	.207	.070	.120	.238	.713	.276	.319	.436	.755
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.628	.203	.011	.204	.297	.934	.245	.300	.441	.741
Dylan Crews	4.5	.687	.185	.018	.141	.263	.911	.247	.301	.401	.702
Keibert Ruiz	4.4	.774	.192	.004	.117	.181	.431	.260	.298	.392	.690
José Tena	4.3	.724	.183	.026	.092	.270	.985	.257	.309	.386	.695
Jorbit Vivas	4.2	.694	.161	.015	.060	.345	.541	.247	.321	.345	.666
Andrés Chaparro	4.1	.554	.185	.005	.167	.294	.827	.244	.305	.430	.735
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.711	.095	.031	.035	.323	.744	.241	.307	.314	.621
Jacob Young	3.9	.703	.151	.020	.060	.235	.605	.262	.317	.366	.683

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.6	.939	.218	.042	.087	.301	.566	.302	.352	.434	.786
Agustín Ramírez	4.5	.671	.224	.018	.150	.354	.807	.261	.326	.435	.762
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.601	.172	.019	.181	.454	1.077	.250	.334	.445	.778
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.928	.136	.040	.037	.388	.518	.296	.364	.381	.745
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.629	.172	.025	.103	.364	.972	.249	.329	.392	.721
Javier Sanoja	4.1	.735	.240	.031	.073	.242	.338	.283	.329	.420	.749
Deyvison De Los Santos	4.0	.650	.164	.011	.136	.205	.782	.258	.303	.418	.721
Griffin Conine	3.8	.545	.149	.011	.172	.366	1.057	.255	.333	.455	.788
Brian Navarreto	3.7	.536	.137	.013	.083	.208	.829	.222	.274	.340	.614

Data notes: away starter Jackson Kent: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Kent: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections