Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Tyler Phillips · 72°F

5.4% edge · Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox win

52.7%

Miami Marlins win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

7.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.20)Miami Marlins (mean 3.66)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.86

Over

47.1%

Under

41.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.7%	-146	-111
Miami Marlins	47.3%	+134	+111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Payton Tolle LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.2	5.1	1.5	2.1
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.2	2.2	3.4	1.3	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Payton Tolle4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Tyler Phillips4+ 18%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.765	.189	.022	.048	.544	.919	.240	.332	.329	.660
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.777	.245	.030	.117	.234	.875	.263	.309	.411	.720
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.627	.209	.021	.165	.524	.940	.251	.339	.434	.774
Willson Contreras	4.5	.629	.178	.018	.165	.510	1.068	.256	.361	.439	.800
Mickey Gasper	4.4	.675	.184	.011	.081	.460	.771	.245	.334	.361	.695
Andruw Monasterio	4.3	.685	.210	.010	.067	.400	.846	.252	.328	.364	.692
Jarren Duran	4.2	.559	.194	.056	.092	.362	1.000	.238	.312	.392	.704
Anthony Seigler	4.1	.568	.178	.016	.060	.480	.761	.231	.328	.341	.668
Connor Wong	4.0	.604	.181	.008	.072	.307	.931	.240	.310	.355	.665

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.5	.844	.192	.035	.087	.279	.751	.275	.324	.399	.723
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.540	.163	.020	.183	.411	1.338	.229	.307	.419	.726
Agustín Ramírez	4.3	.600	.196	.016	.136	.318	1.010	.240	.303	.401	.704
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.723	.241	.030	.070	.241	.468	.270	.315	.400	.715
Xavier Edwards	4.1	.845	.125	.028	.037	.355	.669	.278	.345	.357	.701
Leo Jiménez	4.0	.610	.166	.007	.075	.307	.936	.239	.316	.352	.669
Griffin Conine	3.9	.501	.133	.009	.158	.355	1.301	.229	.306	.407	.713
Esteury Ruiz	3.8	.518	.144	.023	.089	.314	1.080	.229	.307	.363	.670
Brian Navarreto	3.6	.484	.123	.010	.068	.191	1.028	.201	.251	.303	.553

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections