Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Ryan Gusto · 78°F

6.6% edge · Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox win

48.0%

Miami Marlins win

52.0%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

7.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.01)Miami Marlins (mean 3.99)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.99

Over

49.4%

Under

50.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	48.0%	-125	+108
Miami Marlins	52.0%	+116	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.6	5.6	1.5	2.3
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.5	2.7	3.5	1.2	1.4

Strikeout ladder

Sonny Gray4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 19%

Ryan Gusto4+ 27%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.750	.180	.020	.053	.501	1.003	.236	.322	.325	.646
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.760	.224	.028	.134	.198	.933	.259	.299	.412	.711
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.626	.202	.021	.178	.480	.983	.253	.334	.444	.778
Caleb Durbin	4.5	.712	.210	.014	.094	.333	.537	.257	.330	.386	.716
Mickey Gasper	4.3	.654	.184	.010	.089	.432	.791	.243	.328	.365	.693
Andruw Monasterio	4.3	.676	.206	.012	.070	.385	.862	.253	.328	.368	.696
Jarren Duran	4.1	.555	.183	.052	.099	.350	1.030	.238	.311	.393	.705
Anthony Seigler	4.0	.550	.166	.019	.065	.453	.813	.226	.320	.339	.659
Connor Wong	3.9	.588	.173	.007	.074	.278	.954	.236	.302	.351	.652

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.611	.184	.035	.163	.383	1.468	.240	.311	.420	.731
Griffin Conine	4.4	.628	.165	.009	.178	.362	1.423	.242	.310	.420	.731
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.582	.170	.016	.157	.371	1.272	.235	.306	.406	.712
Xavier Edwards	4.2	.915	.142	.054	.035	.352	.633	.297	.358	.389	.747
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.589	.144	.037	.081	.438	.966	.233	.323	.359	.682
Otto Lopez	4.0	.795	.185	.036	.071	.224	.622	.288	.331	.412	.744
Owen Caissie	3.9	.540	.166	.009	.136	.302	1.365	.237	.302	.403	.705
Joe Mack	3.8	.557	.144	.008	.127	.263	1.035	.238	.296	.392	.687
Javier Sanoja	3.7	.644	.217	.029	.055	.203	.399	.273	.316	.400	.717

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections