Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Shota Imanaga vs Janson Junk · 79°F

3.2% edge · Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs win

56.5%

Miami Marlins win

43.5%

Fair line (home)

+130

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.73)Miami Marlins (mean 3.86)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.59

Over

46.7%

Under

45.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	56.5%	-156	-130
Miami Marlins	43.5%	+143	+130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	4.9	5.3	1.1	2.3
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	4.7	3.2	5.2	1.4	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Shota Imanaga4+ 74%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Janson Junk4+ 41%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.696	.204	.053	.235	.351	1.082	.267	.329	.495	.824
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.714	.227	.014	.186	.466	1.062	.268	.344	.460	.804
Michael Busch	4.6	.641	.193	.023	.184	.449	.993	.252	.334	.444	.778
Alex Bregman	4.5	.703	.188	.009	.158	.436	.592	.262	.342	.430	.771
Ian Happ	4.4	.577	.178	.016	.149	.477	1.084	.235	.325	.404	.728
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.874	.198	.015	.060	.254	.348	.286	.338	.389	.726
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.767	.167	.037	.080	.250	.698	.268	.318	.391	.709
Michael Conforto	4.1	.530	.168	.008	.139	.409	.959	.233	.317	.398	.715
Carson Kelly	4.0	.635	.141	.006	.121	.360	.644	.253	.328	.397	.725

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.577	.167	.017	.228	.373	1.254	.242	.311	.459	.770
Otto Lopez	4.4	.859	.188	.043	.103	.228	.631	.289	.330	.431	.761
Griffin Conine	4.3	.577	.148	.011	.220	.337	1.354	.245	.311	.457	.768
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.746	.224	.029	.088	.205	.419	.275	.313	.412	.726
Agustín Ramírez	4.1	.567	.191	.014	.156	.279	.876	.246	.304	.429	.733
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.556	.150	.021	.109	.279	1.105	.231	.300	.375	.675
Deyvison De Los Santos	3.9	.585	.140	.010	.158	.168	.875	.244	.282	.417	.700
Jared Serna	3.7	.561	.146	.009	.080	.205	.708	.228	.278	.344	.622
Brian Navarreto	3.6	.496	.127	.012	.097	.160	.956	.215	.257	.344	.601

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections