Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Javier Assad vs Ryan Gusto · 78°F

4.5% edge · Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs win

49.5%

Miami Marlins win

50.5%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.55)Miami Marlins (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.93

Over

49.2%

Under

50.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	49.5%	-122	+102
Miami Marlins	50.5%	+113	-102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Javier Assad RHP · Chicago Cubs	3.5	3.1	3.7	1.3	1.7
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.6	3.0	3.7	1.4	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Javier Assad4+ 37%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Ryan Gusto4+ 34%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.638	.194	.046	.224	.413	1.170	.251	.324	.469	.793
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.660	.213	.011	.173	.548	1.155	.253	.345	.434	.779
Michael Busch	4.6	.604	.185	.024	.171	.533	1.095	.244	.342	.429	.771
Alex Bregman	4.5	.678	.186	.010	.148	.508	.646	.258	.350	.422	.773
Ian Happ	4.4	.547	.170	.014	.139	.559	1.145	.228	.333	.389	.722
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.862	.197	.012	.053	.315	.386	.285	.346	.381	.727
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.737	.157	.036	.075	.287	.770	.259	.317	.376	.693
Michael Conforto	4.1	.502	.151	.007	.133	.470	1.036	.222	.321	.380	.701
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.555	.149	.007	.092	.338	.922	.225	.306	.349	.655

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.620	.197	.037	.195	.451	1.300	.256	.337	.464	.802
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.605	.178	.017	.189	.474	1.128	.248	.333	.443	.776
Griffin Conine	4.4	.620	.157	.010	.195	.445	1.245	.252	.336	.448	.784
Otto Lopez	4.3	.843	.187	.039	.084	.284	.566	.290	.342	.420	.762
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.589	.145	.046	.086	.524	.845	.241	.348	.379	.727
Owen Caissie	4.1	.547	.172	.011	.156	.384	1.285	.242	.321	.423	.743
Joe Mack	4.0	.565	.143	.010	.151	.313	.961	.239	.306	.409	.715
Graham Pauley	3.9	.504	.163	.019	.114	.326	.852	.229	.299	.384	.683
Javier Sanoja	3.7	.678	.199	.024	.069	.235	.335	.279	.328	.409	.736

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections