Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Clay Holmes vs Tyler Phillips · 79°F

5.1% edge · Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs win

52.4%

Miami Marlins win

47.6%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

9.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.83)Miami Marlins (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.2

Over

52.3%

Under

40.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	52.4%	-142	-110
Miami Marlins	47.6%	+131	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.1	4.8	5.4	2.2	2.4
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.2	2.3	3.5	1.5	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Clay Holmes4+ 73%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Tyler Phillips4+ 20%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.692	.209	.048	.212	.452	1.146	.262	.338	.474	.812
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.692	.212	.013	.171	.603	1.126	.260	.357	.439	.796
Michael Busch	4.7	.643	.186	.023	.169	.593	1.049	.252	.356	.434	.790
Alex Bregman	4.6	.708	.189	.007	.151	.539	.627	.263	.357	.427	.784
Ian Happ	4.5	.569	.182	.013	.126	.607	1.129	.231	.342	.384	.726
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.888	.193	.014	.052	.325	.380	.286	.348	.381	.729
Pedro Ramírez	4.3	.762	.165	.034	.079	.318	.768	.265	.326	.385	.711
Michael Conforto	4.2	.535	.164	.008	.131	.504	1.026	.232	.334	.391	.726
Carson Kelly	4.1	.626	.142	.007	.112	.433	.719	.248	.335	.385	.721

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.7	.641	.202	.037	.160	.499	1.286	.253	.343	.437	.780
Griffin Conine	4.6	.667	.166	.011	.156	.490	1.297	.249	.338	.412	.751
Owen Caissie	4.5	.648	.196	.012	.141	.437	1.375	.252	.333	.414	.747
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.631	.153	.051	.078	.561	.874	.246	.357	.378	.734
Heriberto Hernández	4.2	.588	.165	.016	.153	.489	1.070	.248	.343	.425	.768
Joe Mack	4.1	.613	.164	.010	.131	.333	1.003	.244	.311	.397	.708
Otto Lopez	4.0	.825	.183	.040	.062	.284	.522	.299	.354	.421	.775
Graham Pauley	3.9	.548	.174	.019	.098	.341	.844	.237	.309	.379	.688
Javier Sanoja	3.8	.701	.209	.030	.052	.256	.338	.281	.333	.401	.734

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections