New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Sandy Alcantara · 77°F

10.1% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

57.2%

Miami Marlins win

42.8%

Fair line (home)

+134

Proj. total

8.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.56)Miami Marlins (mean 3.70)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.26

Over

43.9%

Under

48.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	57.2%	+108	-134
Miami Marlins	42.8%	-117	+134

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.5	3.9	4.3	1.4	1.8
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	6.0	4.7	6.4	2.0	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Sean Manaea4+ 56%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Sandy Alcantara4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.770	.181	.028	.159	.395	.814	.260	.332	.423	.754
Juan Soto	4.7	.692	.154	.020	.238	.836	.693	.285	.414	.520	.934
Bo Bichette	4.6	.893	.222	.016	.102	.277	.727	.284	.331	.414	.745
Carson Benge	4.5	.819	.170	.028	.120	.314	.907	.273	.330	.413	.743
Jared Young	4.4	.655	.184	.029	.140	.329	.910	.250	.317	.415	.732
Marcus Semien	4.3	.667	.138	.014	.120	.342	.725	.238	.303	.371	.674
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.736	.185	.023	.063	.330	.955	.262	.324	.370	.695
Brett Baty	4.1	.647	.148	.012	.108	.322	.994	.245	.309	.378	.687
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.534	.135	.008	.155	.343	1.026	.232	.306	.404	.710

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.551	.171	.016	.193	.474	1.256	.232	.320	.427	.747
Otto Lopez	4.4	.840	.181	.040	.086	.287	.653	.280	.332	.406	.738
Agustín Ramírez	4.3	.590	.191	.014	.134	.354	.912	.238	.310	.397	.706
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.731	.227	.028	.079	.259	.413	.270	.319	.402	.721
Esteury Ruiz	4.1	.564	.158	.022	.095	.355	1.108	.230	.319	.364	.683
Deyvison De Los Santos	4.0	.613	.137	.012	.135	.210	.921	.239	.286	.389	.675
Jakob Marsee	3.9	.521	.132	.042	.088	.479	.845	.233	.341	.376	.717
Jared Serna	3.8	.555	.136	.008	.070	.257	.723	.221	.282	.324	.606
Brian Navarreto	3.7	.493	.129	.010	.078	.199	.956	.208	.261	.320	.581

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections