New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Jonah Tong vs Eury Pérez · 81°F

4.5% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

49.7%

Miami Marlins win

50.3%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

8.31

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.23)Miami Marlins (mean 4.07)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.31

Over

44.0%

Under

48.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	49.7%	+117	+101
Miami Marlins	50.3%	-127	-101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jonah Tong RHP · New York Mets	3.6	3.9	3.3	1.7	1.6
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.1	5.5	4.5	2.3	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Jonah Tong4+ 56%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Eury Pérez4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 17%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.660	.150	.025	.176	.486	1.026	.238	.327	.409	.736
Juan Soto	4.7	.578	.136	.019	.253	.961	.874	.265	.419	.517	.935
Bo Bichette	4.6	.779	.191	.012	.121	.349	.904	.261	.321	.398	.720
Carson Benge	4.5	.694	.152	.027	.131	.383	1.106	.247	.318	.394	.713
Marcus Semien	4.4	.588	.129	.012	.134	.423	.913	.220	.300	.361	.661
A.J. Ewing	4.3	.651	.161	.020	.067	.419	1.158	.235	.315	.340	.655
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.469	.132	.006	.169	.432	1.254	.211	.302	.387	.689
Brett Baty	4.0	.570	.127	.009	.117	.373	1.164	.225	.301	.361	.662
Nick Morabito	3.9	.580	.115	.015	.057	.304	1.111	.214	.285	.303	.588

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.532	.167	.031	.187	.513	1.434	.229	.324	.425	.749
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.529	.172	.013	.177	.524	1.277	.229	.325	.416	.741
Griffin Conine	4.3	.550	.136	.010	.183	.493	1.373	.230	.325	.415	.740
Otto Lopez	4.3	.787	.167	.036	.077	.334	.641	.274	.336	.395	.731
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.530	.130	.041	.090	.590	.928	.225	.346	.362	.708
Javier Sanoja	4.1	.700	.210	.026	.070	.287	.414	.268	.323	.394	.717
Owen Caissie	4.0	.476	.155	.009	.148	.398	1.369	.224	.309	.400	.710
Graham Pauley	3.8	.480	.154	.016	.110	.346	.911	.220	.296	.369	.666
Joe Mack	3.7	.489	.129	.008	.131	.315	1.007	.225	.297	.385	.683

Data notes: away starter Jonah Tong: only 26 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jonah Tong: only 21 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections