Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Phillips · 82°F

3.3% edge · Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers win

59.9%

Miami Marlins win

40.2%

Fair line (home)

+149

Proj. total

8.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.77)Miami Marlins (mean 3.58)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.35

Over

44.0%

Under

48.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	59.9%	-182	-149
Miami Marlins	40.2%	+166	+149

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Glasnow RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.2	6.6	4.2	2.0	1.9
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.2	2.3	3.5	1.6	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Glasnow4+ 92%6+ 67%8+ 34%

Tyler Phillips4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.9	.805	.185	.031	.111	.347	.899	.251	.315	.380	.695
Freddie Freeman	4.8	.808	.235	.013	.140	.568	.792	.285	.377	.447	.825
Mookie Betts	4.7	.759	.219	.018	.156	.533	.492	.278	.365	.452	.817
Max Muncy	4.6	.531	.151	.012	.193	.725	1.063	.232	.361	.429	.790
Kyle Tucker	4.5	.633	.165	.023	.157	.650	.682	.256	.369	.435	.804
Teoscar Hernández	4.4	.666	.174	.013	.161	.362	1.110	.254	.322	.425	.747
Josue De Paula	4.3	.659	.172	.011	.109	.439	.857	.250	.332	.387	.718
Hunter Feduccia	4.2	.581	.151	.018	.081	.473	1.033	.226	.318	.343	.661
Alex Freeland	4.0	.554	.138	.015	.085	.445	1.062	.222	.314	.340	.653

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.508	.160	.030	.169	.466	1.636	.216	.305	.398	.703
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.488	.141	.012	.181	.480	1.457	.211	.302	.392	.695
Griffin Conine	4.3	.515	.129	.007	.159	.436	1.568	.212	.298	.373	.672
Otto Lopez	4.2	.749	.157	.038	.077	.303	.780	.263	.322	.383	.705
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.513	.126	.036	.073	.536	1.100	.212	.324	.331	.655
Javier Sanoja	4.0	.665	.190	.029	.071	.276	.506	.258	.312	.382	.694
Owen Caissie	3.9	.425	.142	.010	.132	.365	1.556	.203	.283	.362	.645
Graham Pauley	3.8	.436	.133	.017	.105	.340	1.062	.203	.280	.345	.626
Joe Mack	3.6	.452	.119	.006	.121	.283	1.158	.209	.276	.358	.634

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections