New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Robert Stock vs Janson Junk · 83°F

7.0% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

53.7%

Miami Marlins win

46.3%

Fair line (home)

+116

Proj. total

8.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.66)Miami Marlins (mean 4.14)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.79

Over

48.3%

Under

51.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	53.7%	+110	-116
Miami Marlins	46.3%	-119	+116

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robert Stock RHP · New York Mets	4.1	4.0	4.1	1.6	1.9
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	4.7	3.0	5.3	1.3	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Robert Stock4+ 59%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Janson Junk4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.752	.170	.027	.184	.373	.760	.258	.327	.435	.761
Juan Soto	4.7	.676	.158	.022	.262	.811	.663	.287	.412	.540	.952
Bo Bichette	4.6	.893	.208	.015	.124	.269	.690	.286	.331	.427	.758
Carson Benge	4.5	.813	.178	.030	.131	.306	.849	.277	.333	.428	.762
Jared Young	4.4	.659	.179	.029	.157	.319	.865	.254	.318	.429	.748
Marcus Semien	4.3	.643	.143	.013	.133	.353	.681	.238	.306	.383	.689
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.726	.187	.023	.066	.333	.909	.262	.325	.374	.699
Brett Baty	4.1	.637	.145	.010	.125	.307	.936	.245	.307	.390	.697
Luis Torrens	4.0	.613	.170	.007	.108	.244	.732	.244	.297	.382	.679

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.575	.177	.033	.184	.464	1.355	.239	.328	.435	.763
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.567	.169	.014	.178	.474	1.211	.235	.324	.420	.744
Griffin Conine	4.4	.582	.149	.011	.181	.458	1.308	.239	.328	.424	.752
Otto Lopez	4.3	.809	.170	.041	.080	.287	.589	.279	.333	.403	.737
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.561	.135	.043	.089	.531	.896	.233	.344	.370	.714
Javier Sanoja	4.1	.709	.224	.027	.070	.256	.388	.272	.322	.401	.722
Owen Caissie	4.0	.511	.153	.014	.146	.368	1.324	.232	.312	.407	.719
Graham Pauley	3.8	.498	.159	.018	.114	.325	.883	.226	.298	.381	.679
Joe Mack	3.7	.517	.127	.009	.131	.303	.940	.232	.302	.392	.694

Data notes: away starter Robert Stock: only 44 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections