Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Blake Snell vs Ryan Gusto · 81°F

7.2% edge · Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers win

57.1%

Miami Marlins win

42.9%

Fair line (home)

+133

Proj. total

8.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.47)Miami Marlins (mean 3.56)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.03

Over

49.1%

Under

50.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	57.1%	-190	-133
Miami Marlins	42.9%	+174	+133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Blake Snell LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	6.2	4.1	2.3	1.8
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.7	2.9	3.7	1.5	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Blake Snell4+ 89%6+ 60%8+ 27%

Ryan Gusto4+ 33%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	4.8	.773	.178	.028	.116	.326	.928	.247	.311	.378	.689
Max Muncy	4.7	.529	.154	.010	.203	.694	1.147	.225	.347	.421	.768
Mookie Betts	4.6	.740	.196	.017	.159	.493	.507	.271	.353	.443	.796
Kyle Tucker	4.5	.631	.165	.020	.168	.607	.718	.254	.360	.437	.797
Will Smith	4.4	.637	.170	.009	.139	.535	.804	.250	.352	.408	.760
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.645	.173	.015	.163	.325	1.114	.253	.316	.429	.745
Josue De Paula	4.2	.624	.171	.013	.112	.404	.876	.245	.323	.386	.709
Alex Freeland	4.1	.555	.138	.013	.091	.411	1.115	.219	.305	.340	.645
Enrique Hernández	4.0	.554	.157	.009	.099	.296	.953	.225	.286	.354	.640

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.494	.137	.014	.168	.556	1.512	.206	.309	.375	.684
Otto Lopez	4.4	.769	.164	.037	.079	.361	.842	.260	.325	.377	.702
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.525	.129	.041	.081	.622	1.160	.212	.334	.336	.671
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.688	.197	.029	.076	.333	.550	.256	.318	.380	.698
Agustín Ramírez	4.1	.490	.156	.011	.122	.401	1.104	.211	.295	.359	.654
Kyle Stowers	4.0	.435	.139	.024	.146	.462	1.473	.211	.310	.389	.699
Esteury Ruiz	3.9	.463	.131	.019	.082	.387	1.302	.201	.295	.322	.616
Jared Serna	3.8	.509	.124	.007	.073	.312	.894	.207	.279	.311	.590
Griffin Conine	3.7	.435	.111	.006	.137	.414	1.325	.214	.310	.380	.689

Data notes: away starter Blake Snell: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections