Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez · 79°F

2.5% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

54.1%

Miami Marlins win

45.9%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

8.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.53)Miami Marlins (mean 3.83)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.36

Over

44.5%

Under

47.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	54.1%	-111	-118
Miami Marlins	45.9%	+103	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ray Kerr LHP · Atlanta Braves	2.2	2.3	2.0	0.7	0.8
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.0	5.3	4.7	2.0	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Ray Kerr4+ 17%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Eury Pérez4+ 80%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.737	.164	.007	.186	.472	1.078	.255	.335	.426	.761
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.688	.163	.013	.198	.654	1.091	.265	.376	.462	.837
Matt Olson	4.6	.560	.193	.005	.227	.550	1.220	.245	.341	.465	.806
Michael Harris II	4.5	.747	.208	.018	.178	.207	.961	.270	.309	.453	.762
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.781	.186	.015	.078	.268	.609	.259	.310	.370	.679
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.649	.162	.011	.127	.337	.736	.244	.312	.389	.701
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.491	.157	.014	.144	.484	1.093	.221	.318	.390	.708
Austin Riley	4.1	.527	.140	.014	.148	.359	1.271	.227	.306	.394	.700
Sean Murphy	3.9	.421	.124	.006	.131	.416	1.214	.197	.295	.350	.645

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.5	.869	.182	.041	.082	.280	.693	.280	.331	.402	.732
Jakob Marsee	4.4	.603	.142	.040	.100	.510	.999	.231	.333	.368	.701
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.557	.151	.014	.173	.421	1.225	.232	.314	.414	.727
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.744	.226	.039	.088	.236	.419	.278	.322	.422	.744
Griffin Conine	4.1	.540	.149	.006	.174	.369	1.311	.235	.312	.420	.732
Agustín Ramírez	4.0	.560	.182	.013	.132	.290	.904	.241	.303	.405	.708
Deyvison De Los Santos	3.9	.595	.144	.011	.132	.180	.918	.240	.282	.392	.674
Joe Mack	3.8	.520	.132	.007	.142	.250	1.018	.229	.287	.393	.680
Jared Serna	3.6	.531	.141	.008	.068	.226	.739	.222	.277	.329	.606

Data notes: away starter Ray Kerr: only 22 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ray Kerr: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections