Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Emmet Sheehan vs Eury Pérez · 78°F

0.4% edge · Miami Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers win

55.2%

Miami Marlins win

44.8%

Fair line (home)

+123

Proj. total

8.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.45)Miami Marlins (mean 3.76)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.21

Over

43.2%

Under

56.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	55.2%	-131	-123
Miami Marlins	44.8%	+121	+123

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Emmet Sheehan RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	4.8	5.6	4.2	1.7	1.9
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.0	5.0	4.4	2.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Emmet Sheehan4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 19%

Eury Pérez4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mookie Betts	4.9	.729	.199	.016	.175	.558	.682	.261	.350	.437	.787
Freddie Freeman	4.8	.730	.202	.011	.147	.588	.983	.264	.363	.426	.789
Max Muncy	4.7	.473	.136	.010	.207	.728	1.310	.213	.344	.413	.757
Will Smith	4.5	.609	.151	.008	.152	.571	.987	.236	.343	.395	.738
Kyle Tucker	4.4	.571	.150	.019	.162	.653	.831	.240	.357	.420	.776
Josue De Paula	4.3	.588	.156	.009	.119	.450	1.033	.227	.312	.365	.677
Alex Call	4.2	.555	.139	.009	.079	.566	.933	.218	.335	.327	.662
Miguel Rojas	4.1	.686	.183	.004	.069	.290	.629	.248	.307	.353	.660
Alex Freeland	4.0	.490	.117	.014	.086	.428	1.228	.200	.292	.314	.606

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.495	.158	.031	.196	.440	1.604	.218	.306	.419	.725
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.481	.132	.013	.206	.448	1.453	.211	.299	.408	.707
Otto Lopez	4.3	.748	.158	.037	.088	.292	.776	.259	.315	.384	.699
Griffin Conine	4.2	.495	.129	.008	.189	.414	1.480	.219	.305	.409	.714
Xavier Edwards	4.1	.789	.112	.039	.036	.412	.734	.266	.344	.347	.691
Jakob Marsee	4.0	.495	.121	.035	.086	.497	1.043	.214	.324	.345	.668
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.643	.182	.030	.080	.255	.483	.258	.311	.392	.703
Joe Mack	3.8	.475	.120	.007	.142	.283	1.160	.215	.281	.376	.657
Esteury Ruiz	3.7	.452	.113	.016	.100	.304	1.177	.209	.294	.345	.639

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections