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0.8% edge · Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds
July 17, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Logan Henderson · 85°F
Miami Marlins win
42.3%
Milwaukee Brewers win
57.7%
Fair line (home)
-137
Proj. total
9.03
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Miami Marlins (mean 4.27)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.76)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.03
Over
51.0%
Under
41.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 42.3% | +136 | +137 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 57.7% | -148 | -137 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | 4.8 | .762 | .153 | .017 | .146 | .485 | .711 | .256 | .343 | .404 | .748 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.7 | .850 | .195 | .033 | .122 | .297 | .758 | .277 | .328 | .422 | .750 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.5 | .900 | .132 | .057 | .058 | .434 | .684 | .280 | .352 | .383 | .735 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.4 | .513 | .158 | .027 | .210 | .416 | 1.441 | .228 | .309 | .440 | .749 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.3 | .520 | .144 | .018 | .205 | .428 | 1.290 | .229 | .311 | .433 | .744 |
| Griffin Conine | 4.2 | .505 | .129 | .008 | .193 | .381 | 1.466 | .219 | .296 | .408 | .704 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.1 | .513 | .120 | .032 | .102 | .486 | 1.030 | .214 | .317 | .351 | .667 |
| Joe Mack | 4.0 | .501 | .126 | .009 | .152 | .316 | 1.169 | .216 | .284 | .381 | .665 |
| Javier Sanoja | 3.9 | .626 | .188 | .031 | .078 | .240 | .466 | .254 | .304 | .387 | .692 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 4.7 | .786 | .181 | .013 | .158 | .493 | 1.078 | .274 | .356 | .438 | .795 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4.6 | .778 | .228 | .019 | .204 | .299 | .889 | .290 | .341 | .498 | .839 |
| Brice Turang | 4.5 | .789 | .177 | .022 | .121 | .439 | .903 | .278 | .352 | .425 | .777 |
| William Contreras | 4.3 | .781 | .196 | .005 | .154 | .450 | .675 | .295 | .373 | .468 | .841 |
| Jake Bauers | 4.2 | .554 | .159 | .013 | .196 | .504 | 1.102 | .250 | .346 | .459 | .805 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.1 | .631 | .175 | .033 | .127 | .400 | 1.218 | .262 | .340 | .430 | .770 |
| Cooper Pratt | 4.0 | .661 | .138 | .035 | .067 | .362 | .714 | .249 | .324 | .362 | .686 |
| Sal Frelick | 3.9 | .777 | .174 | .015 | .070 | .310 | .447 | .290 | .352 | .406 | .758 |
| Joey Ortiz | 3.8 | .630 | .163 | .015 | .087 | .289 | .617 | .257 | .320 | .388 | .708 |
Data notes: home starter Logan Henderson: only 35 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections