New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Logan Henderson · 70°F

2.7% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

46.7%

Milwaukee Brewers win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.13)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.23)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.36

Over

52.3%

Under

47.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	46.7%	+123	+114
Milwaukee Brewers	53.3%	-134	-114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.742	.170	.026	.091	.460	1.233	.242	.320	.359	.679
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.627	.149	.021	.180	.403	.957	.236	.315	.413	.728
Bo Bichette	4.5	.772	.183	.011	.141	.300	.852	.265	.318	.415	.733
Carson Benge	4.4	.655	.141	.023	.135	.361	1.048	.239	.308	.387	.696
Jorge Polanco	4.3	.544	.138	.004	.188	.424	.989	.228	.310	.413	.723
Jared Young	4.2	.529	.144	.009	.167	.377	1.064	.226	.306	.402	.708
Marcus Semien	4.1	.548	.126	.013	.135	.368	.842	.223	.298	.374	.671
Brett Baty	4.0	.543	.120	.010	.130	.340	1.131	.223	.295	.371	.666
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.472	.118	.008	.193	.336	1.075	.228	.303	.433	.736

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Christian Yelich	4.6	.670	.151	.010	.153	.525	1.244	.244	.337	.400	.737
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.664	.203	.016	.201	.318	1.028	.262	.319	.465	.784
Brice Turang	4.4	.664	.159	.020	.120	.475	1.073	.248	.333	.393	.726
William Contreras	4.3	.680	.162	.006	.153	.488	.791	.267	.356	.436	.792
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.546	.154	.031	.134	.454	1.385	.235	.325	.403	.727
Andrew Vaughn	4.1	.595	.163	.016	.141	.333	.830	.248	.318	.416	.734
Jake Bauers	4.0	.457	.124	.007	.177	.503	1.189	.224	.331	.421	.752
Cooper Pratt	3.8	.555	.116	.026	.069	.395	.803	.225	.314	.335	.649
Joey Ortiz	3.7	.574	.150	.013	.077	.315	.701	.241	.312	.362	.675

Data notes: home starter Logan Henderson: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections