New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat · 70°F

4.6% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

49.6%

Milwaukee Brewers win

50.4%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.55)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.33)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.89

Over

49.2%

Under

50.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	49.6%	+118	+102
Milwaukee Brewers	50.4%	-128	-102

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.9	.781	.175	.027	.082	.511	1.161	.247	.331	.357	.688
Juan Soto	4.8	.607	.138	.020	.261	.980	.784	.274	.428	.531	.958
Bo Bichette	4.7	.846	.203	.013	.129	.338	.811	.278	.336	.422	.758
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.657	.154	.022	.168	.446	.847	.250	.338	.426	.764
Carson Benge	4.4	.683	.146	.025	.121	.407	.968	.246	.324	.387	.711
Luis Robert Jr.	4.3	.581	.156	.006	.146	.376	1.202	.228	.302	.383	.686
Jared Young	4.2	.558	.155	.013	.149	.414	1.015	.235	.323	.404	.728
Marcus Semien	4.1	.564	.131	.014	.119	.415	.772	.227	.310	.368	.678
Luis Torrens	4.0	.560	.156	.007	.084	.294	.894	.222	.289	.338	.627

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.729	.220	.016	.214	.313	.924	.274	.328	.482	.810
Brice Turang	4.5	.742	.179	.021	.131	.476	.920	.267	.347	.419	.766
William Contreras	4.4	.748	.184	.007	.149	.511	.683	.281	.368	.447	.816
Andrew Vaughn	4.3	.655	.186	.017	.145	.347	.748	.256	.323	.423	.746
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.603	.164	.030	.127	.466	1.223	.250	.340	.414	.753
Gary Sánchez	4.1	.496	.117	.016	.191	.434	.943	.227	.321	.427	.748
Luis Lara	4.0	.657	.132	.018	.050	.393	.757	.241	.326	.331	.657
Cooper Pratt	3.9	.587	.120	.032	.062	.394	.686	.233	.319	.340	.659
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.611	.159	.014	.077	.311	.603	.252	.319	.375	.694

Data notes: away starter Zac Thornton: only 24 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Zac Thornton: only 43 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections