Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 3, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Sproat · 74°F

1.0% edge · Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates win

41.3%

Milwaukee Brewers win

58.7%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

9.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.27)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.93)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.2

Over

52.3%

Under

47.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	41.3%	+132	+142
Milwaukee Brewers	58.7%	-143	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.949	.206	.013	.046	.268	.878	.271	.321	.353	.674
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.588	.176	.010	.227	.462	1.238	.238	.320	.447	.767
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.671	.170	.017	.141	.499	1.116	.248	.341	.404	.745
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.572	.161	.012	.174	.468	1.300	.232	.320	.410	.730
Spencer Horwitz	4.4	.662	.194	.010	.122	.594	.762	.265	.374	.420	.794
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.755	.187	.022	.076	.324	.854	.267	.332	.385	.718
Endy Rodríguez	4.2	.570	.166	.009	.103	.457	1.016	.230	.320	.364	.685
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.565	.137	.009	.104	.351	.855	.223	.299	.351	.649
Henry Davis	3.9	.476	.136	.004	.132	.364	.999	.213	.300	.367	.667

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.7	.764	.190	.021	.129	.613	1.004	.269	.367	.420	.787
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.720	.227	.018	.207	.382	.952	.278	.343	.488	.832
Christian Yelich	4.5	.687	.157	.013	.141	.610	1.076	.259	.365	.415	.780
William Contreras	4.4	.751	.187	.005	.147	.593	.702	.289	.391	.459	.849
Jake Bauers	4.3	.528	.144	.011	.193	.656	1.144	.244	.367	.451	.819
Andrew Vaughn	4.2	.647	.181	.016	.143	.408	.760	.265	.345	.437	.783
Garrett Mitchell	4.1	.575	.165	.029	.123	.519	1.231	.253	.356	.422	.777
David Hamilton	4.0	.556	.120	.029	.095	.438	.946	.228	.318	.359	.677
Joey Ortiz	3.9	.625	.165	.015	.082	.386	.648	.258	.338	.387	.725

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections